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Good morning. Crude oil is near a 2018 high, no new U.K. Covid deaths and the AMC stock frenzy is back. Here's what's moving markets.

Zero

The U.K. recorded no new Covid-19 deaths for the first time since the global pandemic began, bolstering demands for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to lift restrictions as planned this month. Johnson is facing the dilemma of whether to priorite the economy and ease the rules to remove all social distancing restrictions and allow large events to be held, or to stay cautious and delay the final step out of lockdown amid a surge in cases. In encouraging news elsewhere, the WHO approved Sinovac's vaccine, validating the Chinese shot that has battled concerns about its efficacy. It could provide assurance for developing countries that lack their own regulatory bodies and rely on the organization's advice on which shots are safe to use.

In & Out

AMC Entertainment sold $230.5 million in new shares to Mudrick Capital Management, only for the hedge fund to swiftly sell its entire stake at a profit within hours. The U.S. movie theater chain's stock has been caught up in a second surge driven by retail traders connected via Reddit. After its price rose more than 10-fold this year, Mudrick considers AMC to be overvalued, according to a person familiar with the matter. This hasn't killed the mood — the meme stonk rallied 18% during extended trading overnight. 

Oil Up

Crude oil futures closed at their highest level since 2018 as OPEC+ provided an upbeat assessment of the demand outlook on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister said demand "has shown clear signs of improvement" as the alliance ratified an output boost for July. Adding further support to the market was an indication that talks to revive a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran have been delayed for now. An Iranian official said a deal is now expected to be finalized in August, dimming the prospect of Iranian oil supplies quickly returning to the market.

Inflationary Pressure

U.K. house prices returned to double-digit growth for the first time since 2014, yesterday's Nationwide data showed. By evening, this elicited expressions of unease from the Bank of England, with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden telling the Guardian that "there's a risk that demand gets ahead of supply and that will lead to a more generalized pick-up in inflationary pressure," adding, "that's something we are absolutely going to guard against." His colleague Jon Cunliffe described the rally as mainly fueled by a tax holiday that expires this summer. 

Coming Up…

European stock futures are bid slightly higher, tracking mild gains in Asian equities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and PBOC Governor Yi Gang are among the speakers at the virtual Green Swan Conference, which begins today aiming to coordinate financial sector action against climate-change risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin will give the keynote speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while a host of regional Fed presidents will speak at a forum on racism and the economy. And the U.K. might be set to start another trade deal, as the members of the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership agreed to allow the U.K. to begin the process to join.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

Global momentum stocks just got a hell of a lot cheaper. The forward price-earnings ratio on the MSCI World Momentum Index -- a gauge of the best performing stocks -- slumped to 18 times last week from over 30 times after a scheduled rebalancing. That compares to the MSCI World Index on about 20 times earnings. The reason of course is the change of leadership in the global stock market where cheaper economically-sensitive shares have taken over from expensive growth shares. An MSCI gauge of global value stocks is up 16% this year, compared to just 6% for the growth equivalent, meaning the reshuffle in the momentum basket has favored the cheaper cyclical shares. The momentum gauge itself is up just 7% this year, lagging the global market. Of course momentum investing works best when there is a sustained trend in sector leadership -- a chopping and changing market tends to hurt returns. So the question for adherents of the strategy becomes whether value shares can maintain their leadership and keep the next rebalancing to a minimum.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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