Messing with convention

When it comes to interpreting the promises and threats of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it might be best just to take him at his word.

Lately, the topics the Turkish leader has been focusing on include potentially invading Syria (again), buying more Russian weapons even as he seeks President Joe Biden's approval to purchase American warplanes, and most urgent of all, tackling the problems that are afflicting Turkey's economy — and with it his popularity ratings.

Erdogan has never shied from expressing his unconventional views on economics, which center around a belief that interest rates are the main cause of rising prices, and so lowering them will slow inflation. That approach has long been dismissed as quackery or political grandstanding, because there are practically no serious economists who agree with him.

But any doubt that Erdogan was serious evaporated with the midnight firing of three voting members of the central bank's rate-setting committee. The current governor, Sahap Kavcioglu, is keen to do Erdogan's bidding. He has cut rates into a storm of inflation both globally and at home, where it's soared to about 20%, quadruple the target.

The vast majority of economists would say that continuing down this path dramatically increases the chances of an economic trainwreck for Turkey. But they can't say it's a surprise. — Benjamin Harvey

Erdogan in a shop on Oct. 3.

Source: Republic of Turkey

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Hamstrung president | Biden's promises to rapidly cut carbon from power grids and shift to electric cars could potentially put the country responsible for more than a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions on the brink of dramatic decarbonization. But the slow movement of his proposals through Congress may mean there is little evidence on show at the COP26 summit starting this month in Glasgow that Biden is taking the global lead on these issues.

Coal dependency | Chinese President Xi Jinping is keen to burnish his climate credentials, but that's difficult to square with the scramble to mine, buy and burn ever more coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, to keep the lights on at home. The energy crunch means Beijing must juggle the contradictory pressures of ensuring domestic energy security and meeting its international climate obligations.

Container ship positions as of Oct. 14, heat-mapped in yellow.

A tropical storm lashing southern China mixed with Covid-related supply chain snarls is causing a shipping backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, intensifying fears retail shelves may look rather empty come Christmas.

Politics of chips | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said it will build a factory for specialty chips in Japan and plans to begin production there in late 2024, a strategically important step for the country amid chronic chip shortages. It also comes as Japan speaks out more publicly in support of Taiwan, a democratically-governed island that China views as a province, and could spark fresh criticism from Beijing.

Private sector employees in China have begun an online campaign — called Worker Lives Matter — to share their working hours in a protest against the excessive work culture in the country.

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Glimmers of progress | The European Union will resume talks with the U.K. in the coming days amid signs it may be able to defuse a dispute over Northern Ireland that threatens to trigger a trade war. After Britain demanded changes to the Brexit agreement keeping Northern Ireland in the EU single market, the bloc proposed slashing customs checks and sanitary inspections. Sticking points remain, including judicial oversight.

Coal holdout | South Africa's energy minister opposes being pushed to ban new coal-power projects as a funding requirement to help switch to renewable energy, he told Antony Sguazzin in an interview. Gwede Mantashe's position puts him at odds with his president, who's seeking to win climate aid from rich nations. The world's 12th-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases relies on coal for more than 80% of its power generation.

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dissolved parliament to began the formal process for an election on Oct. 31 where he will seek to win over voters through promises to boost wages.
The House committee probing the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol subpoenaed a former Justice Department official described as being at the center of then-President Donald Trump's bid to overturn the 2020 election results.
The EU set out proposals for members to help protect their most vulnerable companies and citizens from the unprecedented surge in energy prices.
A group of Republican-led states criticized the Justice Department for suing to overturn a Texas ban on most abortions, telling a judge the federal government needs to be reined in.
The U.S. and the Philippines plan to return to full-scale military drills in 2022 and will invite Australia and the U.K. as observers, another sign of Washington's push to deepen ties in the region.
Six out of seven Covid-19 infections go undetected in Africa, showing the impact of the virus on the world's least-vaccinated continent is likely underestimated, the World Health Organization says.

And finally ... President Vladimir Putin warned a Russian editor who's just won the Nobel Peace Prize that it's not a guaranteed "shield" against a Kremlin media crackdown. If Novaya Gazeta's Dmitry Muratov "doesn't violate Russian law, and if he doesn't give a reason to be declared a foreign agent, then he won't be," Putin said yesterday. Russia has branded nearly 50 reporters as "foreign agents" since July under a law that potentially leaves any outlet receiving money from abroad, including grants and prizes, under threat of prosecution unless they post the label on all reports and meet strict financial disclosure rules.