Good morning. More U.K. energy suppliers go under, the energy crunch is an opportunity for Russia, Turkish president fires rate-cut opponents and firms face worker shortages. Here's what's moving markets. Two more power suppliers in the U.K. have collapsed under the weight of surging energy prices, bringing the total to go under since the beginning of August to 12. BP-backed Pure Planet and Colorado Energy, which serve a combined 250,000 customers, announced they went out of business on Wednesday. The sector's woes are far from over, with a Glencore-backed gas supplier in the U.K. no longer providing gas to utility clients. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country is ready to deliver all of the natural gas that Europe needs, as he blamed the continent's energy crunch on flawed policies. Russia has already boosted shipments to Europe by 15% this year through the end of September and stands ready to increase this further. Surging energy prices come as an opportunity for the Russian president, who wants to press the EU to rewrite some of its gas market rules. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired three central bank members by decree, ridding the monetary policy committee of opponents to interest rate cuts. The changes follow a meeting between Erdogan and Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu on Wednesday evening. This comes against the backdrop of a weakening lira, which fell to a record low against the dollar on Wednesday. Eight out of 10 companies in the U.K. struggled to recruit last month even as many of them increased wages, a survey showed. The hiring difficulties are more acute in the catering and hospitality sector, where 92% of companies reported difficulties, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The shortage reflects the combined effect of Brexit and the pandemic, as payrolls are already above pre-pandemic levels after a record surge in September and job vacancies are at an all-time high. European stocks are set to follow Asian markets higher, with earnings season helping to highlight economic recoveries despite inflation pressures, including soaring Chinese producer prices. And it's another busy day for earnings today, with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth and Citigroup all giving the latest figures in the U.S., while TSMC's figures could reverberate as it gives clues regarding the global chip shortage. Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing will report in Japan. Watch the EIA crude oil inventory report which comes out amid the energy crunch and a warning that U.S. consumers are set for an expensive winter. This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. That neither good nor bad news drives markets as much as better-than or worse-than-expected news is a concept that takes a while to get comfortable with for those new to finance. But growth disappointments worldwide are weighing on stocks even with global GDP expected to expand almost 6% this year and 4.5% next. Citigroup's global economic surprise index -- a gauge of whether economic data beats or falls short of analyst expectations -- has been in negative territory since August. That's coincided with the retreat in the MSCI AC World Index from its record high. I have sympathy for analysts trying to guess the path of an economy recovering from a once-in-a-century pandemic but it's clear that the period of underestimating the strength of the rebound is over. Risks to growth have increased, not least strained supply chains and how rising costs for food and fuel could weigh on consumption. The IMF cut its global forecasts this week, cautioning that inflation risks are "skewed to the upside" and those for growth are "tilted to the downside." That should help bring down over-bullish analyst estimates. But stocks are likely to remain under pressure, until the trend of worse-than-expected data reverses. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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