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Best and worst places to be

Singapore is no longer the world's best place to be during Covid. There's been a remarkable shift in tycoons' fortunes in Hong Kong. And Australia is struggling with a worker shortage. Here's what you need to know to start your day.

Knocked Off

Singapore, once lauded for its handling of the coronavirus, has lost its top spot in Bloomberg's Covid Resilience Ranking as the world's best place to be during the pandemic. It fell in May along with other Asian economies that had contained the virus, while countries leading on vaccination continue to climb the rungs. Taiwan and Japan dropped out of the top 10 altogether, while the U.S. and parts of Europe are on an upward trajectory. Meanwhile doctors in India are suffering from burnout and depression while working shifts of up to 48 hours; Hong Kong may donate vaccine shots to other countries as local demand wanes with just a fraction of the city vaccinated; and Covid long-haulers are baffling doctors with an array of painful symptoms that go on and on.

Staying Cautious

Asian stocks look set for a weaker open Wednesday after softer economic data weighed on U.S. equities. Treasuries rallied and the dollar dipped as Federal Reserve officials again predicted transitory price pressures. Futures were in the red in Japan and Australia, but little changed in Hong Kong. The S&P 500 slipped and the Nasdaq 100 posted a modest gain after reports showed U.S. new home sales slid and that consumer confidence retreated slightly amid concerns about inflation and job prospects. U.S. equity contracts were steady. Treasury yields declined as more Fed officials joined a chorus downplaying signs of inflationary pressures. 

Fading Relevance

The past few years have seen a remarkable shift in fortunes between China's tech-savvy moguls and their old-school Hong Kong counterparts who built the city — and it's a trend that shows few signs of fading any time soon. Even as Xi Jinping's government moves to curb the clout of the likes of Jack Ma and some of his peers, the combined wealth of China's 10 richest people has surged threefold since 2016 to $425 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. For Hong Kong, it doubled to $218 billion during the same period. The changes underscore the fading relevance of Hong Kong businessmen who built their empires on real estate, ports, infrastructure, telecommunications, aviation and retail. Here's Matthew Brooker's take on why the old-school tycoons failed Hong Kong — and why they won't be missed.

Worker Shortage

From tropical island resorts to Outback whiskey makers to mountain ski fields to inner city coffee shops, Australian businesses are struggling to recruit the staff they need to service cashed up domestic customers who are spending locally as the border remains shut to keep out Covid-19. A diminished pool of skilled labor, from baristas to waiters to chefs, means businesses will need to start bidding higher to secure employees. Such troubles would be music to the ears of Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe, who is trying to drive down unemployment to trigger pay gains across the economy. 

Cascade of Calamities

When Japan won the competition to host the 2020 Olympics in the wake of a devastating earthquake and tsunami, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said it would be a "tremendous opportunity for Tokyo and for Japan to shine at the very center of the world stage." How things have changed. Now, just weeks before the rescheduled opening ceremony on July 23, a resurgent outbreak coupled with one of the slowest vaccine rollouts in Asia has prompted the majority of the population and top business leaders to call for them to be delayed again or scrapped altogether. Pushing ahead with them could prove costly, both for current Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's political future, and for corporate sponsors.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

One of the big questions I've been asking this year is at what point supply shortages and soaring input prices become a real problem for the global economy rather than a temporary challenge as we wait for producers to respond to booming demand and ramp up capacity. On Tuesday, we had a trio of data points to consider:

— Sales of U.S. homes in April came in lower than expected after soaring lumber costs pushed prices much higher. There's concern now that the cost of new homes is reaching a point where it simply starts to squeeze many people out of the market. 

— Inflation expectations in the U.S. ticked up to 6.5%, according to the Conference Board data released yesterday, basically a decade high if you strip out a pandemic-related spike from last year. Bloomberg Intelligence Economist Yelena Shulyatyeva suggests that inflation expectations are now at the point where they're starting to hit consumer confidence and future buying plans.

— The South China Morning Post reported that a surge in the cost of raw materials is "sweeping through a number of factories in China's southern manufacturing hub," threatening their bottom lines. There's an anecdote about a casting company in Guangdong not being able to fulfil orders, saying in a statement to its customers last week that: "The cost of casting materials has far exceeded the company's gross profit, and it has reached the point where we can no longer afford any loss."

That feeds into the other big story this week, which is about China getting serious about commodities speculation. China will show "zero tolerance" for monopoly behavior and hoarding, the National Development and Reform Commission said. China's Premier Li Keqiang, meanwhile, has also been talking about curbing commodity prices while ensuring ample supply. There's a chance that China's warning starts to cool prices and perhaps anchors inflation expectations slightly lower. But in the meantime, there are signs that all of this is becoming more of a headwind for two of the world's major economies.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

 

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