We’re not ready for a China-Russia team-up

Today's Agenda The U.S. may not be ready for a China-Russia alliance. Warren Buffett may be getting ready for a European deal. The Dems may not be ready to beat Trump. Oil prices are getting ready to fall. China and Russia, Frenemies Sharing one giant, resource-rich landmass, China and Russia are in many ways natural enemies. But for now they have more reasons to team up against the U.S. instead, and it's not clear the U.S. is ready to deal with it. The China-U.S. rivalry is more glaring these days, mainly because President Donald Trump keeps aggravating it. Today he took credit for holding up a trade deal, and yesterday he threatened massive tariffs on Chinese goods if Xi Jinping doesn't meet with him at the G-20 summit. He's personally friendlier toward Russia – which helped get him elected, after all – but his administration has not been. James Stavridis points out China and Russia share an interest in spreading authoritarianism around the world, and they currently have matching needs; China needs Russia's raw materials, while Russia needs China's influence. As Russia encourages disunity in Europe, China tries to pull Europe-adjacent countries into its orbit with its "One Belt, One Road" scheme. Can the center hold? Trump's Pentagon, meanwhile, has ditched its longstanding goal of being able to fight two wars at once, in order to focus on fighting one very big war, against either China or Russia. Right away you see the problem, writes Hal Brands: What if China and Russia both want to fight at the same time? And what if a third combatant – North Korea, say – jumps into the fray? Perceived U.S. weakness, Hal writes, could make every rival bolder, and the world more dangerous. Further Russia Reading: Vladimir Putin will probably free a Russian investigative journalist, boosting the Kremlin's image without addressing the underlying problems that led to his arrest. – Leonid Bershidsky  Further China Reading: China needs to clean up its Belt and Road plan, and here's how. – Daniel Russel  After the Deals, More Deals Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is borrowing a bunch of money for a very long time in Europe, which could just be a way to lock in rock-bottom interest rates, like you do when you are already very wealthy. Or it could be a sign Buffett is about to strike a deal in the Old World, note Tara Lachapelle and Marcus Ashworth. Buffett has hinted he wants a bigger presence there, after all. Tara and Marcus ran a screen of potential takeover targets and found 33 candidates, including Anglo American, Burberry and Ryanair.  European dealmakers have had a hard time, uh, making deals lately, notes Chris Hughes. Rising antitrust sentiment and protectionism have scuttled Renault-Fiat, Commerzbank-Deutsche Bank and many other potential unions lately, Chris writes. The U.S. isn't having such problems yet – though yesterday's announced United Technologies Corp.-Raytheon Co. blockbuster got a skeptical early review from Trump. The threat of that deal could push reluctant industrial dealmakers into action, though, writes Brooke Sutherland, including General Electric Co., Honeywell International Inc. and more. The Dems Are Blowing It A helicopter crash may have done Democrats a favor yesterday. A tragic accident in New York City happened just as John Dean was about to tell the House Judiciary Committee how Trump's crimes are just like Watergate. That pulled TV's attention away from the hearing room, sparing Dems the embarrassment of what Jonathan Bernstein writes was a pointless exercise. If you want to hear Dean's perfectly valid thoughts on Trump, you can often just catch him on television; and if Trump's crimes are just like Watergate, then why aren't Dems impeaching him already? It's the latest example of how clueless Democrats have been about investigating and holding Trump accountable, Jonathan writes. Then there's the question of just how much Dems should even be talking about Trump's malfeasance as the 2020 election approaches. To win back the White House (much less the rest of Congress), Dems must recapture many of those voters who picked Trump after voting for Obama in 2012, writes Stephen Morgan. Doing that will require focusing on the economy above all else – but not in such a way that scares off centrists, Morgan writes. Telltale Charts Countries are starting to cut taxes to attract oil investment, notes Liam Denning – another factor pushing prices lower. Beneath the stock market's placid surface, signs of uncertainty and tension are growing, writes Nir Kaissar.  Further Reading More guns do not, in fact, lead to less crime, as the NRA would have you believe. In fact, study after study suggests the opposite. – Bloomberg's editorial board  A Boris Johnson premiership raises the threat of a no-deal Brexit, but then markets may prefer that to more delays. – Marcus Ashworth  Property owners are in the crosshairs as rents soar in Berlin, and leftist politicians around the world are paying attention. – Chris Bryant  Whatever his faults, Carlos Ghosn did a pretty good job of holding the fractious Renault-Nissan alliance together, it turns out. – Lionel Laurent  Not all the kids in the Operation Varsity Blues scandal deserve expulsion. – Stephen Carter ICYMI Apple Inc. could make all its iPhones outside of China. Kevin Durant's injury sends shock waves through the NBA. Jon Stewart gave Congress an earful on behalf of 9/11 first responders. Kickers Kraft wants kids to think ranch dressing is "salad frosting." (h/t Mike Smedley) Hackers picked the wrong band to mess with in Radiohead. (h/t Scott Kominers) Here are some ukulele covers of Radiohead. Living on the wrong side of a time zone can be hazardous to your health. Sex may have evolved to prevent cancer. Note: Please send salad frosting and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. FOLLOW US SEND TO A FRIEND You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022