Texas thaws, Biden open to talking to Iran, and it's PMI day. Blame game As the power starts to come back on in Texas after the biggest forced blackout in U.S. history, state Governor Greg Abbott sharply criticized the power grid manager and called on lawmakers to mandate the winter-proofing of energy infrastructure. For markets, the restarting of the region's oil production capacity is coming as a relief, with oil executives saying most of the lost output would be restored within days. Global crude prices, which had rallied on the shutdown, are dropping again this morning. Iran talksWhile the Texas shutdown has been a short, sharp shock to the oil market, there are signs of diplomatic outreach between the U.S. and Iran that, if successful, would have wider implications for global crude supply. The Biden administration said it would be willing to meet with Iran to find a way to return to the nuclear deal which was abandoned by President Donald Trump. The sequencing of any resumption of talks will be difficult, with Tehran already calling for the lifting of sanctions before it sits down with the U.S. The other signatory countries to the 2015 deal are keen to have it restored, which may pressure Iran back to the table. PMI day Today's purchasing managers survey data shows a mixed picture for the global recovery. In Japan factory activity expanded while measures to combat the pandemic continued to weigh on services. It was a similar story in France and Germany where manufacturing grew again while the slump in services means the private sector remains under pressure. A composite gauge for the euro area stood at 48.1 for February. In the U.K., supply-chain problems due to Brexit helped push factory activity to the weakest level in nine months. PMI data for the U.S. economy is published at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time. Markets riseGlobal equity markets are ending a mixed week on the quiet note. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was broadly unchanged while Japan's Topix index closed 0.7% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.4% by 5:50 a.m., with earnings again the biggest drivers of moves. S&P 500 futures pointed to a higher open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.308% and gold slipped. Coming up... Existing home sales data for January is at 10:00 a.m. with the latest Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m. President Joe Biden takes part in a virtual G-7 meeting. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speak later. Deere & Co. reports earnings. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Katie's interested in this morningI couldn't resist spilling some ink on MicroStrategy's upsized convertible bond offering this week. For a bit of background, MicroStrategy is nominally a software maker, but made waves in August after revealing that it had purchased Bitcoin. In December, it sold $650 million of 0.75% coupon convertible notes to purchase more of the cryptocurrency -- bringing its total bet past $1 billion at the time. In fact, MicroStrategy has become so focused on speculating on cryptocurrency to boost its profits, it actually added a second pillar to its corporate strategy: "to acquire and hold Bitcoin." Well, MicroStrategy tapped the bond market again this week to further that specific goal. What was supposed to be a $600 million sale of convertible notes was boosted to $900 million, with an option for $150 million more within 13 days. The debt was priced with a 0% coupon -- you read that right -- and the company estimates total proceeds of about $1 billion, which will be used to purchase more of the world's largest cryptocurrency. What's fascinating about this phenomenon is that MicroStrategy is effectively providing an avenue for bond buyers to get a piece of Bitcoin's dizzying rally. Evidently, demand was strong. There's a monetary policy angle, too -- MicroStrategy's coupon marked the tenth 0% issue this year, which is in a large part a result of the Federal Reserve pinning short-term rates near zero. In addition to the primary market demand, trading in MicroStrategy's existing December-issue notes are an interesting case study in convertible bonds. The yield-to-maturity on the 0.75% coupon 2025 notes currently stands at negative 17.7% -- a figure that was as low as negative 22.7% earlier this month. While that sounds nuts, it's not that uncommon to see negative yields in the land of convertible bonds. As ace Bloomberg News equity capital markets reporter Crystal Kim explains, the MicroStrategy notes are effectively trading as Bitcoin-linked bonds. As the token's price went parabolic, it dragged MicroStrategy's common shares along for the ride. The stock has skyrocketed since the debt was issued, pushing the notes -- which have a conversion price of about $398 -- deeply in-the-money. That basically tells you that these convertible notes are less bond, more stock at this point. But amazingly, no one appears to have converted them into common equity yet, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Follow Bloomberg's Katie Greifeld on Twitter at @kgreifeld Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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