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Netflix was supposed to collapse during a recession. Whoops.

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Bloomberg

A global recession was supposed to be the beginning of the end for Netflix Inc.

Skeptics of the streaming giant have long insisted it's a house of cards built on cheap debt. The company has taken advantage of low interest rates, borrowing billions of dollars to finance an unprecedented glut of programming, only a fraction of which it owns.

In an economic crisis, Wall Street would demand profits on top of new subscribers. Debt holders would ask to get paid. Netflix would be overstretched, and have few assets on which to rely.

Whoops. The world is now in the middle of an economic recession unlike any we've seen before. It could be the worst since the Great Depression, or worse than the Great Depression. Some 26 million people are now unemployed in the U.S., the world's largest economy, and all the major global stock indices are down this year.

And Netflix? Netflix is thriving. The streaming service added 15.8 million customers in the first quarter of the year, a new record. Netflix had never added 10 million customers in a single quarter. While the S&P 500 is down 12% so far this year, Netflix is up more than 30%.

Netflix is almost perfectly positioned to ride out the global pandemic, as Peter Kafka noted on Twitter this week.

Billions of people are stuck at home, many with excess time on their hands. They are watching more TV than ever, especially in the middle of the day.

This is not great for TV networks that stack their best programming in primetime, and operate a 24-hour live feed that must be replenished every day. This is not great for movie studios that rely on people going to theaters. It's not great for anyone that sells advertising or in sports media.

It's very good for a service that lets people watch what they want when they want without advertising interruptions. And while most of its rivals release new programming a few times a month – if that – Netflix releases more new programs than there are days in the month.

The recession will inevitably prompt those most affected to cut their budgets. But what will they cut first? A $100 cable package, or a $13 Netflix subscription?

One risk for Netflix would seem to be that it will run out of shows. But because it drops all of its episodes at once, it finishes producing seasons way in advance. Netflix says it will face minimal interruptions in its slate of programs until some time next year. (I remain a bit skeptical that Netflix is as unaffected as it says, but, for now, we'll take the company at its word.) 

All the success could hurt Netflix in the long run. The crisis could accelerate the transition from cable TV to internet TV. That means Netflix's growth may be slower later this year, or next year. The company will need to come up with a new plan for growth faster than Reed Hastings had in mind.

But in the short term, the world is a very big place. The company still has just 19.9 million subscribers in Asia, home to more than half the global population, and just 34.3 million customers in Latin America, home to nearly twice as many people as the U.S. Somehow, there are still people in the U.S. who don't pay for Netflix. The service added 2.3 million customers at home. -- Lucas Shaw

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The week that was

Sports ratings records

ESPN's Michael Jordan documentary is the most-watched doc in the network's history. And the NFL draft was the most-watched in history. 

More layoffs

Endeavor said it plans to furlough, fire or cut salary for one-third of its work force (about 2,500 people). Ari Emanuel's company has been among the hardest hit companies in Hollywood given its significant investments in live events.

The Fortnite effect

Epic Games, publisher of Fortnite, is looking to raise $500 million to $1 billion, and is seeking a valuation well north of the $15 billion it got last time. Rapper Travis Scott hosted a concert in the game that was viewed by more than 12 million people.

Shake-up at AT&T

CEO Randall Stephenson will retire, and John Stankey will succeed him. Stankey had been CEO of WarnerMedia (the artist formerly known as Time Warner), and then COO of the phone giant.

HBO Max is here

AT&T's new streaming service -- aka HBO but more! -- debuts May 27. The first batch of original shows includes "Love Life," a comedy produced by Anna Kendrick and Paul Feig, as well as an underground ballroom dance competition series. 

Weekly playlist

 

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