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Stocks are overpriced, but they might also stay that way

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Today's Agenda

Maybe Those Rocket Emoji People Are Onto Something

Growing up in trees like we did, humans evolved with an innate understanding of gravity, which I call the Invisible Enemy because I am a clumsy oaf. Things that go up must come down. It helps explain our fears of heights, flying and waterfalls.

But sometimes things go up and never come down. Jeff Bezos might slip the surly bonds of Earth someday and keep on going, to Planet Bezos, which he will populate with little Bezoses. And sometimes you have to wonder if the stock market will do something similar. Nir Kaissar points out that, over the past 30 years — yes, that's "thirty," as in "older than the song 'Waterfalls'" — stock prices have only once dipped below their long-term average, and even then only briefly:

This has created an entire harrumphing-industrial complex, because come on! Prices can't possibly stay this high this long, right? We feel this in our bones, the way our ape forebears felt the distance between tree limbs and the ground. That's probably because the prior century or so of market action looked like this:

See? Prices went up, and then they went down, the way God and nature intended.

But is it possible the stock market is leaving gravity behind? Nir suggests it just might be, for reasons you can see if you read the whole thing. That's not to say there won't be momentary collapses, as in 2008. Karl Smith warns a shrinking population will make the U.S. economy even more prone to financial bubbles, which could mean more 2008s ahead. But structural evolution could give the market wings and lighter bones that keep it aloft more often than not.

Once More, With Feeling: We Need Vaccine Mandates

Last night news leaked that CDC scientists see Covid's delta variant as more contagious than smallpox and that infected vaccinated people (of which there are still not many!) can transmit the virus just as easily as infected unvaccinated people. The CDC followed up by releasing an unnerving study of a Massachusetts outbreak mostly involving vaccinated people, traced to gatherings that happened right around the time we were told to get ready for a "freedom summer." As Scott Duke Kominers warned us last month, freedom summer is turning out to be more of a freedom bummer.

So now what? We need to wear masks. And perhaps more important, we need to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible. This has always been the case, but it is even more so now. As we wrote a couple of weeks ago, vaccine carrots aren't doing the trick, especially not when people reject both carrots and vaccines. It was time then to break out the stick of vaccine mandates, and that's only more urgent now, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. Walmart today joined the list of companies and organizations making employees get shots, and there should be more. Vaccines don't prevent infection, unfortunately, and we may need booster shots at some point. But they do drastically lower the odds of hospitalization and death. Unfortunately, this once again seems to be our primary goal.

Bonus Editorial: Whether it keeps negotiating on nukes or not, the U.S. must address Iran's missile capabilities and proxies.

Telltale Charts

Good news, everybody: New Yorkers are murdering each other much less this year, Justin Fox writes. Not so good news: They're still murdering a lot more than they were in 2019. And the rest of the country is still doing far too much murdering:

Companies making employees come back to the office face a new dilemma, writes Chris Hughes: Should they help pay for those employees' soul-crushing commutes?

Further Reading

President Joe Biden's success (so far) with infrastructure has more to do with Congress and Democratic leadership than with Biden, though his focus and professional team don't hurt. — Jonathan Bernstein 

The SEC can help workers and investors by setting standards for disclosure on workplace equity, or the "S" in "ESG." — Paul Dickinson and Meredith Sumpter 

Nikola's founder is in trouble for fudging reality, but Tesla's Elon Musk does that all the time. — Liam Denning

Slowing e-commerce sales and rising competition for AWS spell trouble ahead for Amazon. — Tae Kim 

Consumer brands are rubbing their hands at the prospect of inflation helping them raise prices. But they can't take it too far. — Andrea Felsted 

If India wants more love from the U.S., it must step up as a military counterweight to China. — Mihir Sharma 

ICYMI

The CDC stopped tracking breakthrough cases just as delta started spreading.

The EU hit Amazon with an $888 million fine.

Congress is getting Trump's tax returns.

Kominers's Conundrums Hint

We're giving everyone another day to solve the "Olympics of Brainteasers!" (Solution submissions are now due by 8 p.m. New York time Saturday.)

  • You can "medal" in any of three different sports puzzle categories, and here are some hints to get you started:
  • For mathematical archery, it might be useful to start by noting that the first player's total score is even.
  • For the sport climbing puzzle, you'll want to map out the connections between the different holds — and you can forget about the vermilion one!
  • And as to diving: You can't quite find the listed dive types in the letter pool — but maybe you can find strings of letters that look close? (For example, look down in the bottom right corner.)
  • The sport climbing puzzle, in particular, is especially accessible — so it's a great one to attempt even if you don't have much experience with puzzles!

Kickers

New exotic matter particle just dropped.

Beijing man stares back at surveillance cameras.

Drivers for Elon Musk's Vegas Loop get a script to follow.

Who really owns Amanda Knox's name?

Notes: Please send exotic matter particles and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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