| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a terrifying brunch of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's AgendaThe New Cold War Isn't Over Just YetBloomberg Opinion's most-read story of the past two weeks is Niall Ferguson's warning this past Sunday that not only is a fight between the U.S. and China over Taiwan inevitable, it will probably eighty-six the American empire. A little further down the readership list, but not by much, is a week-earlier warning from Max Hastings about the same thing. Clearly the lesson here is that ruminating about world war and hegemony's end really helps the Sunday brunch go down. But today is Tuesday, so let us offer an alternative history of the near future, which may pair well with whatever you're having for dinner. Rather than a threat to become the new leader of an undemocratic world, China seems more likely to stay trapped in its second-place status, writes Michael Schuman. Falling productivity and fertility rates threaten its economic growth. Its recent belligerence betrays either a misunderstanding of its power or anxiety about its lack thereof. There was a moment mid-pandemic — when China had Covid-19 mostly beaten and started shipping homemade vaccines around the world, while America repeatedly stepped on rakes — when China seemed to have at least a soft-power edge on its rival. But it has squandered that goodwill, writes Hal Brands, bullying neighbors and its own citizens and dumping vaccines of questionable efficacy on the world. All of which make it harder to forget and forgive the country's bungling of the initial coronavirus outbreak. None of this makes China less threatening to America's place in the world. As Niall and Max have warned, China wants Taiwan badly, and a sense of weakness may make it more likely to force the issue. But Hal writes America is "a second-half team," starting to win the soft-power game and accumulate allies, at the very least. It's a bit like that thing Winston Churchill didn't say, about Americans always doing the right thing after exhausting all other alternatives. Anyway, enjoy your dinner. Grids Across AmericaTexas learned the very hard way recently that running its own electrical grid was a terrible idea. It remains to be seen whether the state will actually take that lesson to heart and plug into neighbors who can offer backup juice when necessary. But beyond Texas, the whole country could benefit from a more unified power grid, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. Pooling resources would help fight climate change — storing wind and solar energy for use in regions that lack it — while cutting costs and offering blackout protection. There's a lot President Joe Biden and Congress can do to make this happen, and oh looky, they're working on an infrastructure plan right now. Erdogan Goes Full CostanzaBecause this newsletter's references are so minty fresh, it has referred more than once to that 1994 "Seinfeld" episode where George Costanza succeeds by doing the opposite of what he would normally do. We have to break it out again today because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying out a bold variation on Costanza: doing the opposite of what a successful politician would normally do. He has fired yet another central banker, finally finding one who agrees with him that cutting interest rates fights inflation. He's also ditched the Istanbul Convention, a pact dedicated to ending violence against women. Both are designed to help shore up Erdogan's terrible political standing, writes Sinan Ulgen. Both are likely to fail, wrecking the economy and offending women voters. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off (that's a reference from 2004's "Dodge Ball"). Further Turkey Reading: Turkey's market turmoil is unique to Turkey, not a sign of broader contagion. — John Authers Telltale ChartsA year later, the Fed's emergency bond-buying program looks like it was a risk worth taking, writes Brian Chappatta.  New European rules on ESG funds will lead to greenwashing, writes Mark Gilbert, as managers scramble for some of that sweet, sweet ESG cash.  Further Reading Citi banning Friday Zoom calls is the sort of thing companies must do to manage WFH culture. — Elisa Martinuzzi and Marcus Ashworth It's GameStop's earnings day, for whatever that's worth. — Matt Levine Donald Trump's election lawyer was only kidding about all that fraud stuff, duh. — Noah Feldman Right-wing media have revived the fortunes of a toxic Senate candidate who could cost the GOP a safe seat. — Jonathan Bernstein One government program that could fight inequality is baby bonds, helping poor children build wealth and opportunities. — Andrea Gabor The reason you've probably never heard of Apollo 13 hero Glynn Lunney is that he did his job so well. — Charles Murray and Catherine Bly Cox ICYMIPfizer is testing a new pill to treat Covid. AstraZeneca is having more Covid data trouble. America's unemployment system needs an upgrade. KickersAn actual physical painting by Basquiat just sold for $41.9 million. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Humans have 500-million-year-old sea monster DNA. How to photograph a (possible) alien artifact. Akira Kurosawa's 100 favorite movies. Notes: Please send alien artifacts and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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