With Austin pick, Biden faces his first test

Follow Us Get the newsletter Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. President-elect Joe Biden had started out on a roll with his personnel choices. Democrats were happy, many neutral observers were happy, and even several Republicans approved of choices such as Ron Klain for White House chief of staff and Janet Yellen for Treasury secretary. Sure, there was some partisan opposition, and some occasional Democratic griping, but nothing major. Until Tuesday, when word came that Biden would nominate retired General Lloyd Austin for secretary of defense. From what I could tell, there was very little enthusiasm for Austin from anyone, while quite a few people were critical of the choice, mainly on the grounds, as Jim Golby argued, that "a civilian — not a recently retired general — should lead the Pentagon." I tend to agree with the critics, but the real question is how Biden proceeds. In some ways, this will begin to establish his professional reputation as president. Of course, Biden is a known quantity in Washington … but not as president. Those who will be dealing with him for the next four years will be watching, and beginning to collectively form their view of the man who will be in the Oval Office. How does he handle adversity? Does he know how to cut his losses? Will he stand by his allies? Who does he listen to? There is no purely correct answer for Biden here, but a series of challenges. It's possible that opposition will dissipate once Austin is formally selected (as opposed to word of the pick reaching reporters). It's possible that it will be a tough, but winnable, confirmation fight, at least if Biden is determined. It's also possible that Austin is a doomed pick, in which case backing out quickly is probably best, especially if it's handled well. So Biden needs to read the clues that are out there, decide how much he really cares about this selection and make a decision. That includes understanding who is particularly upset by the choice and whether and how to appease them. The good news for Biden is that it's highly unlikely that voters will care about this one way or another, and even if it becomes a very public flap it will be quickly forgotten. This is all very important to the small subset of people who care a lot about who the secretary of defense is, but irrelevant to almost everyone else. That includes Washington insiders and others who will soon be dealing with a new president; they mostly don't care about the outcome, but do care about learning how Biden will behave in office. Biden should have the experience and skills needed to make good decisions in this type of situation. He knows the players. He knows the substantive points they care about. He knows, or at least should know, what kinds of information he needs, and how to seek it out. So now we'll begin to see whether he can put all of that together and make appropriate choices when pressed. This nomination certainly won't make or break his presidency. A president's professional reputation is cumulative, as those who deal with him assess his decisions over and over again: building or eroding their trust in him, determining how likely he is to win when he fights, and getting a sense of his competence. Overcoming one weak personnel decision is no big deal (see George H.W. Bush's failed nomination of John Tower as secretary of defense, an episode that had no discernible effect on the remainder of his presidency). Letting it do further harm? That's what Biden needs to avoid. 1. Don Casler and Richard Clark at the Monkey Cage on the popularity of free trade. 2. Zeynep Tufekci makes the case for alarmism about Trump's attempts to overthrow the election. 3. Jonathan Chait on the Republicans' losing strategy.  4. Susan Brynne Long on the history of leading by example on vaccination. 5. Daniel Lippman on how Biden consumes the news. 6. Erik Wasson on the return of earmarks. Good, if not as big a deal as some think. 7. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Timothy L. O'Brien on Rick Santelli and the facts about the pandemic. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022