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Brexit Bulletin: Back to the table

Brexit Bulletin
Bloomberg

What's happening? Boris Johnson said talks were over, but now they are set to resume — and the EU has a plan to get a deal.

We're back on. Trade talks between the U.K. and the European Union will resume and intensify. The breakthrough, first reported by Bloomberg earlier on Wednesday, means the two sides will aim to secure a deal by the middle of next month.

The official news came after a crucial call between Britain's chief negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier. After days spent poring over the meanings of cryptic public statements, officials will meet again in London on Thursday afternoon.

Caution abounds. "It is clear that significant gaps remain between our positions in the most difficult areas, but we are ready, with the EU, to see if it is possible to bridge them in intensive talks," Downing Street said.

The pound rose as much as 1.6% to $1.3159 on the news, its biggest gain since March. U.K. gilts fell, with 10-year yields rising six basis points.

The EU has a simple plan to secure an accord: make it look like the British prime minister is a brilliant negotiator. Officials are trying to work out how to give off the impression they are backing down to give Johnson his victory. Here's the full story and details of the strategy: 

The EU's Plan to Get a Brexit Deal: Let Johnson Claim He Won

Look out for three things as this saga comes to a close:

  • The EU going out of its way to assert that the U.K. is a sovereign equal to the EU
  • Sending the U.K. a draft legal text to show the EU is serious about getting an agreement
  • An EU compromise on the thorny topic of state aid.

Notably, Barnier did all three when he spoke to the European Parliament on Wednesday. In the language of Brexit every word matters.

There are still big obstacles to a deal — disagreements on matters of substance like the level competitive playing field and fisheries — and the EU may still be underestimating Johnson's willingness to leave the bloc's single market without a deal. But it looks, as of now, as if a deal is just coming into view.

Ian Wishart

Beyond Brexit

Brexit in Brief

Business and markets are now looking more directly towards the final phase of talks and the prospect of a permanent U.K.-EU split.

Here's what you need to know in Brexit this week:

 

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