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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. Having recovered from a drop Wednesday, European shares could open significantly lower again as cases of the coronavirus outside of China pile up and more companies are warning of an adverse impact from the outbreak. Here's what's moving markets.

Virus Spiraling 

For the first time, the number of new coronavirus cases reported in one day in countries other than China exceeded those reported within the country, the World Health Organization said, marking a significant development in the global spreading of the illness. U.S. President Donald Trump, in a speech at the White House, assigned coordination of the American response to Vice President Mike Pence. Authorities there have announced they've identified a first case that doesn't have ties to a known outbreak. Saudi Arabia temporarily halted religious visits that include stops in Mecca and Medina. Here's what it means if the coronavirus is called a pandemic.

Another Drop

It's looking like another potentially brutal morning for European stocks, with a futures benchmark tracking the biggest blue-chips tumbling more than 2.5%. Expect the torrid time for the travel and tourism sector to continue, particularly after Booking Holdings Inc., the travel reservations website giant, warned room nights booked would drop 5% to 10% in the first quarter, while noting difficulty in predicting the future. Corporate warnings outside of travel keep piling up too, with Microsoft Corp. cutting its guidance due to Covid-19.

StanChart's Revenue Hit

Standard Chartered Plc, already grappling with a recession in Hong Kong, said that events there and the coronavirus will hurt 2020 revenue and delayed a key profit target. The bank's Asia shares rose, however, amid news of a stock buyback. Away from banking, today's earnings slate includes beer giant Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, which missed estimates, and later household goods-maker Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc. They follow warnings from two consumer staples peers — Diageo Plc and Danone — on Wednesday. Beleaguered luxury car-maker Aston Martin Lagonda could also be one to watch. 

Brexit Collision Course

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will put the country on collision course with the European Union later as he lays out his government's red lines before talks start on a post-Brexit trade agreement next week. The EU warned Tuesday that no deal will be possible unless Britain signs up to so-called level playing field provisions meant to ensure it doesn't gain a competitive advantage by undercutting regulations. Johnson's office, meanwhile, made it clear only full independence will do, raising the prospect of him walking away from talks.

Coming Up…

Meanwhile, for monetary policy-watchers, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe speaks in London, and in macroeconomic data, we'll get Spanish inflation, along with euro area and Turkish confidence numbers, as well as U.S. economic growth this afternoon. Elsewhere, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's biggest, publishes its annual report. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

Movements in the options market suggest equity traders expect current levels of volatility to last longer than they would during a "normal'' bout of investor anxiety. Not only has the Cboe Volatility Index jumped to its highest in over a year but its futures curve is in so-called backwardation. Firstly, the March contract is trading about 1.5 points above April's, a departure from the usual upward slope in the curve. Meanwhile, as my colleague Luke Kawa pointed out Wednesday, April's future is trading over 1 point higher than May's, the biggest such backwardation between the second and third-month contracts since 2018's Volmageddon. This curve inversion implies traders don't have a handle yet on the potential impact of the spreading coronavirus and are betting on an extended environment of heightened uncertainty. And as new cases continue to appear across the globe, their lack of visibility is understandable. While in theory the elevated volatility doesn't infer stocks will move one way or the other, it would be prudent to expect markets to remain under pressure. At the very least, expect price swings in both directions to continue for some time.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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