5 things to start your day

U.S. recession fears rise, Boris Johnson's big day, and Hong Kong economy hit hard by protests.  Slowdown Yesterday's data from the Institute for Supply Management showing its factory index slipped to the lowest since June 2009 has renewed fears that America may be headed for a recession. Adding to those woes are global manufacturing numbers that show the sector has shrunk for the fifth month in a row. The question for economists now is where the stall speed for U.S. growth lies, with some suggesting the economy could expand as little as 1% without dropping into recession. President Donald Trump was quick to put the blame on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the ISM data was released, while economists cited trade war uncertainty as the main reason for the slowdown.   Ready for his closeup British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address his Conservative Party's annual conference in Manchester, England, and present what his office calls a "fair and reasonable compromise" to the EU. Details of the proposal have already been reported by the Telegraph newspaper, with Ireland's foreign minister describing them as "concerning." Those comments do not bode well for the prime minister's goal of sealing an exit deal with the European Union by Oct. 11 . If a deal isn't forthcoming, Johnson will be obliged to ask for an extension beyond the Oct. 31 exit date, something he has repeatedly vowed not to do.  Sponsored Content by Masterworks Did you know art was the top luxury investment of the ultra-wealthy in 2018? It's no wonder 88% of wealth managers recommend investing in art as it's beaten the S&P by 180% since 2000. Masterworks is the platform for diversifying into high-end art. Start investing like the 1% and request your membership here.   Protests Unrest in Hong Kong is hitting the tourist market, with the knock-on effect for the city's economy laid bare in retail sales figures showing a 23% year-on-year plunge, the largest on record. With the protests becoming increasingly violent, pressure is mounting on the international community to support the pro-democracy demonstrators. In the U.S., there was a stark contrast between Donald Trump's tweet congratulating his Chinese counterpart on the People's Republic's 70th anniversary and comments from leading Republicans about the Communist Party regime.  Stocks drop Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.7% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.4% lower as fears over global growth hit equities in the region. The picture in Europe is even worse, with the Stoxx 600 Index down 1.4% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every sector trading lower for the session. S&P 500 futures pointed to more losses at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.625% and gold was making back some ground.  Coming up… Today's ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. may give some guidance on where Friday's payrolls numbers will come in. With investors worried about the economic outlook again, there will be extra interest in New York Fed President John Williams's speech today. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker are also scheduled to speak. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. Robots to cut 200,000 U.S. bank jobs in next decade, study says. ECB begins transition of benchmark short-term interest rate.  Manhattan resale home prices drop most since 2011. Credit Suisse's spying scandal started with an insult at a New Year's party. Why it's so hard for entrepreneurs to get really rich in Europe. Einhorn's Greenlight Capital jumps 8%. Planet Nine could be a primordial black hole.  And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning There's more than a year to go until the U.S. presidential vote and we still have virtually no idea who the Democratic nominee will be, but chatter about how to trade the election is picking up. With the momentum seen lately by Elizabeth Warren, you're seeing more and more discussion about what stock-market sector would get hurt under her administration. For example, some analysts are looking at weakness in the for-profit education sector as evidence that investors are already concerned that her victory would see her come down hard on these players. Healthcare is also an area under market scrutiny. Now, before we go too far down this road, there are a few key points to make. One is that in our experience, Wall Street is pretty terrible at assessing anything political -- investors and analysts possess no special wisdom on what goes on in D.C. And often they're just 100% wrong. Back in 2016 there was a conventional wisdom that Trump would be bad for stocks. Investors also thought, initially, that energy stocks would be big winners under Trump, but that's been the worst sector of the S&P 500 since the election. Nonetheless, this won't stop people from trying to game these things out. There was also a viral CNBC story from last week about Wall Street Democrats being willing to hold their nose and support Trump if Warren got the nomination, prompting Bloomberg Opinion's Joe Nocera to make the case that actually she'd be great for business. Obviously I have no idea what she or any other Democrat would mean for the economy or stocks, but John Maynard Keynes had a few relevant thoughts. The famous concept of a Keynesian Beauty Contest from Chapter 12 of the General Theory nicely explains the fixation with certain sectors. In this, he likened the market to a game where people try to judge a beauty contest by guessing who other judges will regard as the most beautiful. Even if there's no direct link between policy and outcome, traders will just bet one way or another on the expectation that others are playing the game. And as for all the business leaders who say they don't like her? He warned in Chapter 11 that thanks to animal spirits, just making capitalists feel bad could have a dampening impact on the economy, even if the actual policies are sound. I highlighted the attached, relevant paragraph. Anyway, nobody knows anything, but we're about to get a lot more of all this stuff. 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