Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Good morning. The Bank of England opens the door to an early hike, European banks offer assurances on Evergrande exposure, fertilizer firms are hit by higher gas prices and an EU-U.S. tech summit is going ahead. Here's what's moving markets.

Hike Ahead

The Bank of England left the door open to an increase in interest rates as early as November as spiking energy prices risk a jump in inflation. Most policy makers agreed future tightening should first start with a rate increase, even if that came before the bond-purchase program expires around the end of the year. This is part of a hawkish turn that also spans the U.S. Federal Reserve, leaving the European Central Bank looking lonelier than ever on the monetary-policy stance.

Evergrande Assurances

European bankers are on a quest to reassure clients, regulators and investors that any exposure to troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande is limited. Credit Suisse, which underwrote the most Evergrande bonds among international banks in the last 10 years, issued statements showing its asset management unit's funds didn't hold much of the developer's debt. UBS's risk is "immaterial" and limited to the execution of collateral calls on margin loans, Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers said. Chinese regulators are urging Evergrande to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds.

Spreading Crisis

Europe's growing energy crisis is claiming more scalps, with Austrian fertilizer producer Borealis having to cut output of ammonia after the cost of the main feedstock, natural gas, jumped. This is a further sign of deepening woes for the industry after the U.K. government said in recent days it would provide "limited financial support" to help CF Industries restart fertilizer production. Russia is unlikely to boost gas shipments until at least November, adding to the signs that Europe's energy woes are going to drag on.

Summit's a Go

The inaugural EU-U.S. tech summit is going ahead after all. France had sought to have it postponed following its tussles with America over the latter's defense pact with the U.K. and Australia. The two sides are set to discuss short-term semiconductor issues, as well as a regulatory alignment with regards to China. 

Coming Up…

European equity futures are steady. There is little on the earnings calendar but traders could be looking at the latest IFO expectations and business climate indicators from Germany, which may be slightly softer compared to the last readings. This comes ahead of the country's vote this weekend to elect Chancellor Angela Merkel's successor. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

Thursday's taper tantrum for slow learners may have jump-started a rise in global bond yields again, but has also highlighted once more the indifferent performance of the world's value shares. The yield-to-worst on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Treasuries Index jumped the most in seven months to the highest since July, yet the MSCI World Value Index continued to languish close to an 11-month relative low versus its growth counterpart. That the economically-sensitive value cohort is failing to react as it did when yields pushed higher earlier this year is a good sign of the shift in investor expectations toward growth. In fact it's probably as good a gauge as any of stagflation fears in the stock market. Rate-hike expectations are being brought forward in places like the U.S. and the U.K. on the back of inflation concerns rather than overheating growth. Elsewhere, China's property woes risk heaping more pressure on its already slowing economy, while the euro-zone and Japan are still stuck in stimulus mode. That divergence suggests the world's value shares will continue to languish against their more defensive growth peers until price pressures ease or investors get more comfortable about the global economic recovery.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

No comments