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Iran’s perfect storm

Ebrahim Raisi might have wished for a quieter start to his presidency of Iran.

An ultraconservative cleric and protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi takes over today against a backdrop of renewed tensions in the shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf and growing doubts over Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.

His ascent marks a shift from the more moderate Hassan Rouhani, who sought engagement with the West that unraveled under Donald Trump.

While the transition has stalled the nuclear talks, Raisi himself is not expected to derail them. Iran has said it still seeks to re-enter a deal that would lift U.S. sanctions and allow it to return to global oil markets in return for curbing its atomic program.

The more immediate complication is a deadly drone attack on an Israeli-owned vessel transiting the Persian Gulf last week. The U.S. and others have blamed Iran and vowed a response. Iran rejects the accusations.

In addition, Tehran has been expanding its nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at creating an atomic bomb, and curtailing the access of UN monitors.

All this raises the stakes for the diplomats involved. Western countries have warned that if Iran does not re-enter talks soon, the revival of the deal itself is at risk. Some in the oil market are growing more pessimistic.

The response now falls to Raisi, who also faces unrest over chronic water shortages and the worst coronavirus outbreak in the region.

Raisi has previously indicated he doesn't want to make the nuclear issue Tehran's central foreign policy concern. He may not have a choice. Sylvia Westall

Supporters hold photographs of Ebrahim Raisi.

Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg

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