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What comes next?

As the U.S. withdraws from 20 years of war, Afghanistan's neighbors are facing up to the implications of living with a resurgent Taliban.

From Moscow to Beijing and New Delhi to Tehran, there's alarm at the potential for regional instability as the Taliban captures ever-more Afghan territory. The militant Islamist movement now claims to control all of Afghanistan's borders.

Central Asian states are looking to their former Soviet master Russia for security assurances amid fears fighting may spill over their frontiers. Russia's Foreign Ministry said a Taliban delegation that flew to Moscow last week pledged not to violate neighboring territory.

As Eltaf Najafizada, Faseeh Mangi and Sudhi Ranjan Sen write, Beijing, which called the U.S. pullout "hasty," is worried for the security of $60 billion in projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China's foreign minister heads to central Asia this week.

Pakistan and Iran, already hosting millions of Afghan refugees, are concerned about new waves of people fleeing the violence. Across the region, too, there are fears a Taliban-led Afghanistan may again host jihadist terrorist groups.

Taliban leaders insist they won't let this happen. The Afghan government, which retains control of Kabul and the country's provincial capitals, says its forces will retake lost territory.

There's little confidence internationally in either claim. With the peace talks stalled, many experts see a Taliban takeover as a matter of time.

The worry among Afghanistan's neighbors is that they are facing the same calamity as they did two decades back. Anthony Halpin

A family flees on July 4 after the Taliban captured a key district in Kandahar.

Photographer: Javed Tanveer/AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Brussels pressure | After securing agreement from her Group of 20 counterparts for a global corporate tax plan, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is setting her sights on European Union proposals for a digital levy. Yellen, who is in Brussels today and tomorrow, will make the case for the EU to hold off on the bloc-wide tax on online sales, arguing that it unfairly targets U.S. tech firms.

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signaled in a Bloomberg Television interview that fresh measures might be introduced next year to support the euro-area economy after the current emergency bond program ends.

Growing criticism | U.S. President Joe Biden's administration is intensifying efforts this week to counter Republican laws in some states to restrict voting, as Democrats grow increasingly concerned the White House has no answer to the GOP-led campaigns. Two pieces of national legislation that would maintain ballot access are stalled in Congress and judges as high as the Supreme Court have upheld Republican efforts.

  • Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the 2024 presidential straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference, showing his continued dominance over the Republican Party.

Dead heat | Bulgaria's do-over elections were too close to call as former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov's party was running neck-and-neck with an anti-establishment group led by a talk show host and pop star. The result may produce a hung parliament and extend a political crisis that has hampered the country's efforts to improve the EU's lowest living standards and worst corruption.

China's V-shaped economic rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing, sending a warning to the rest of world about how durable their own recoveries will prove to be.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Island anger | Anti-government protests erupted in Cuba over the weekend in a rare display of public anger at the island's regime. Cuba has faced growing hunger after its economy suffered a slump in tourism revenue during the pandemic. The chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, hailed what he said was a "historic day of protests" by Cubans calling for "an end to dictatorship."

Abiy's Challenges | Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reappointment is a formality after his party coasted to victory in last month's elections. But as Simon Marks and Fasika Tadesse explain, now he has to reunite his conflict-ridden nation, repair its scarred international reputation and rebuild investor trust.

What to Watch This Week

  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will warn people today to remain vigilant as he prepares to lift virtually all remaining coronavirus restrictions in England.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Berlin today before she heads to Washington Wednesday for talks with Biden that will include the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
  • President Emmanuel Macron will address the nation tonight to ring the alarm about the rapid spread of the more contagious delta variant in France.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with U.S. climate envoy John Kerry today in Moscow.
  • Moldova is on the verge of getting a pro-European government that could help President Maia Sandu follow through on the promises to integrate with the EU.
  • Rioting that started with last week's arrest of former South African President Jacob Zuma spread to the nation's two richest provinces, shuttering businesses and halting transport networks.

Thanks for the more than 115 responses to our Friday quiz question, and congratulations to Thomas Hawley, who identified U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the lawmaker whose husband won big on Alphabet stock and made bets on Amazon.com and Apple.

And finally ... The 36-year-old leader of South Korea's biggest opposition party said his fellow millennials will push back against Chinese "cruelty" in places like Hong Kong, indicating a tougher line with Beijing if his conservative political group regains power. Harvard-educated Lee Jun-seok said in an interview with Bloomberg that he aims to harness generational change at home and abroad, Jeong-Ho Lee and Jihye Lee report.

Lee Jun-seok at his office inside the National Assembly in Seoul.

Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg

 

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