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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Good morning. The race to vaccinate, lessons from the Reddit frenzy and the continued rise in oil prices. Here's what's moving markets.

Vaccination Race

French Prime Minister Jean Castex said a fresh lockdown won't be imposed at present, even if it is not yet possible to start easing restrictions in the country. German Chancellor Angela Merkel echoed that warning, saying it is too soon to ease measures. France, Germany and Italy are lagging behind the U.K. and U.S. among G-7 nations in terms of vaccination programs and how long it will take to reach herd immunity at the current pace, according to Bloomberg's Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker. The Bank of England said that the U.K.'s vaccination drive is setting the economy up for a rapid rebound. And foreign-exchange traders see that gap in the pace of vaccine rollouts as an opportunity to bet on currency moves.

Reddit Lessons

The retail-trading frenzy, exemplified by the fortunes of GameStop, may have calmed somewhat but the ripples are likely to be felt for some time. GameStop itself continues to unwind its share spike as Reddit traders pivot to biotech bets, but there are still plenty of so-called "meme stocks" that have doubled this year. This could help in the long run by increasing participation in the stock market, thereby elevating liquidity and boosting market efficiency. The more immediate question for stock traders, however, is what if retail investors decide to do this all over again, potentially even weaponizing put options to power a selloff. Plenty of lessons to be learned for all stock-watchers, though hedge funds forced to retreat in the short squeeze are ramping up risk again.

Oil Optimism

The picture is starting to brighten in the broader oil market, with crude prices set for the biggest weekly gain since October as investors express confidence that OPEC and its allies are committed to keeping global supplies in check. Inventories from China to the U.S. have fallen and Saudi Arabia said it will keep oil prices unchanged in Asia while raising prices for all grades for buyers in the U.S. and Europe, demonstrating a commitment to support the market. That hasn't fed through into big oil earnings, however. Shell followed BP and Exxon Mobil's update earlier in the week with a set of disappointing results on Thursday, leaving investors to hope that improvements will materialize later in the year.

Biden's Slate

House leaders are due to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday. A series of non-binding amendments was proposed in the Senate as part of the process to allow Democrats to pass the proposed $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief package without Republican support. Some moderate Democrats are putting pressure on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to split vaccination funding from the broader relief bill. Biden is also facing an increasingly busy foreign policy slate, with the president urged to push the U.K. and European Union to ease friction over Northern Ireland and his administration halting and reversing a slew of Trump administration initiatives from Germany to Yemen.

Coming Up…

European stock-futures are trending higher once more, setting the stage for a full week of sessions in the green, after U.S. equities hit a record and Asian indexes rose. U.S. payrolls will get most of the attention in the economic calendar, partly for what impact that could have on U.S. President Joe Biden's stimulus plans, with German factory orders also due. French drugmaker Sanofi, lender BNP Paribas and Danish brewer Carlsberg will be in focus for earnings.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

The king is back. After a couple of false dawns, the dollar has finally managed to break through the downtrend it has been in for almost a year now. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen about 1.5% already this year and is higher against all major peers bar the pound. The move could gain some momentum -- not only because of covering pressure from the large amount of short positions in the currency -- but also thanks to improving fundamentals bolstering the greenback. This week's U.S. economic data has been positive, most notably the labor market and a gauge of the service economy, and vaccinations continue apace. Around the U.S., pandemic restrictions are relaxing as the outbreak eases. Inflation expectations are rising, Treasury yields are moving higher and a widely watched segment of the yield curve steepened to levels last seen in 2015. A weak dollar was one of the most consensus calls among global investors at the start of the year. A dollar rally will upset quite a few investment strategies.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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