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Brussels Edition: The Russia conundrum

Brussels Edition
Bloomberg

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Josep Borrell risks leaving pretty much everybody unsatisfied on his visit today to Moscow — the first by an EU foreign-policy chief since 2017. Top of the agenda is a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to express EU outrage at the jailing of opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Hanging over the trip is whether the EU has the stomach to use the Navalny controversy to trigger a new tool for blacklisting foreign officials over human-rights violations. With Borrell himself arguing for deeper EU cooperation with Russia to tackle regional and global challenges, and Germany urging prudence on any punitive steps, don't expect an answer to the sanctions question at least until the bloc's leaders weigh ties with Russia in March.

Jonathan Stearns and Viktoria Dendrinou 

What's Happening

Security Talks | Talks today between the leaders of France and Germany on defense and security will likely be overshadowed by France's recent call to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. Their meeting also comes ahead of an EU summit this month where leaders will discuss the bloc's ability to "act autonomously" in security. The goal is to boost "defense investment, capability development and operational readiness."

Draghi's Task | Mario Draghi holds meetings with political parties today and tomorrow as he seeks to form a government to guide Italy through the pandemic and relaunch its economy. He still lacks a parliamentary majority, but there's reason for optimism: Matteo Renzi said he's confident Draghi can form a new administration, while outgoing premier Giuseppe Conte signaled lukewarm support for the former ECB chief, potentially pointing to a similar stance from the powerful Five Star Movement.

French Risk | The French economy is on the brink of tipping into another recession, depending on Emmanuel Macron's next move to contain the pandemic. Macron's prime minister said last night the government will continue to hold off from imposing a fresh lockdown, even as neighboring countries have opted for stricter measures and French hospitals come under pressure from rising numbers of Covid patients.

Green Taxes | U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is considering using his G-7 presidency to try and forge an alliance on carbon border taxes, adding to signs that the idea to punish imports from polluters is gaining traction beyond the EU. Meanwhile, the European Parliament will urge the European Commission to put a price by 2023 on emissions from imported products, including cement and steel, and link the levy to the region's emissions market.

Virus Update | The University of Oxford is poised to begin a trial combining Covid-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca and Pfizer that could provide greater flexibility in the use of scarce supplies. In the Netherlands, confirmed cases reached 1 million, while Sweden plans to roll out a "digital vaccination certificate." Here's the latest.

In Case You Missed It

British Optimism | The Bank of England said the U.K. economy is heading for a rapid pickup in light of a bold vaccination effort, a sign that the stifling grip of the virus crisis on growth may finally start to ease. The outlook suggests Britain's aggressive immunization push is already materially altering the economic trajectory after almost a year of extreme disruptions, exacerbated by post-Brexit trade arrangements.

Bonus Tightrope | Deutsche Bank wants to award bonuses that are sufficient to keep talented staff from jumping ship, while heeding calls from the ECB to conserve capital in the pandemic. That's an issue major investment banks now face, under pressure from high-performing staff to pay out handsomely amid soaring revenue in the past year, even as the global economy slumped.

Bolster Boosters | Pharma companies face a daunting challenge that few thought we'd see so soon: an onslaught of fast-spreading and potentially dangerous mutations of the virus. So even as they ramp up production, drugmakers have to retool their vaccine strategies. That's raised the possibility that patients will need extra shots to protect against new strains — and that drugmakers could get a new revenue stream.

Green Island | The Danish government has secured broad political backing for the country's largest ever construction project: a 28 billion-euro "energy island" and hundreds of offshore wind mills that will deliver clean electricity and help the country achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

Chart of the Day

Anthony Fauci, the top infectious-disease official in the U.S., has said that vaccinating 70% to 85% of the U.S. population would enable a return to normalcy. On a global scale, with vaccinations averaging around 4.25 million per day, that's a daunting target. At this rate, it will take 7.4 years to cover 75% of the population with a two-dose vaccine, according to Bloomberg's Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker.

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 10:15 a.m. Joint press conference by EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov after meeting
  • 12:15 p.m. EU Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs holds exchange of views on the recent human rights developments in Russia
  • 4 p.m. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron news conference after Franco-German defense and security council
  • 5:15 p.m. German Finance Minister Scholz takes part in LSE symposium with former British Prime Minister Blair
  • 6:30 p.m. EU Commission President von der Leyen meets French Foreign Minister Le Drian

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