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Next China: What Biden changes

Next China
Bloomberg

U.S.-China ties will obviously be different under President Joe Biden. What's less clear at this point is how.

Biden has already ruled out making any significant changes immediately upon taking office and indeed shares many of the concerns that Donald Trump's administration had about China. He has indicated that he'll be making tweaks, though not before doing a review of existing policy.

While it may be months before Biden's team releases a China plan, there are already some indications of what it might do. The new president has, for example, said he wants to work more closely with Washington's allies when dealing with Beijing. That will be a marked departure from Trump's "America First" stance.

Senior Biden advisers have offered clues as well. His nominees for secretary of state and national security adviser have both publicly criticized the crackdown against Hong Kong's political opposition. Another adviser raised the possibility of undertaking confidence-building measures, such as reopening shuttered consulates. Now that the inauguration is over, the coming few weeks offer prospects for even more insight.

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden stand for a photograph while visiting the International Studies Learning Center in South Gate, California in February 2012. 

Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

The first such event will come Monday, when Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to address the World Economic Forum via video link. It will provide Xi an ideal occasion to not only address the current state of U.S.-China ties, but to offer Beijing's view on where they should go next and how. Plenty of people in Washington are sure to be listening closely.

Another indicator worth watching is Taiwan. Beijing has traditionally sought from every new American president an affirmation of the "One China" policy — the idea that China and Taiwan are part of the same country. Washington's adherence to that principle has underpinned bilateral relations since their establishment four decades ago, and was largely an assumed fact until Trump.

It was Trump's decision to speak by phone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen while still president-elect in 2016 that upended that assumption. While Trump ultimately did affirm the "One China" policy, his administration also took a number of steps in its final months to increase American engagement with Taiwan and vex Beijing.

How quickly and in what fashion Biden affirms the "One China" policy will say much to Beijing about his administration's intentions.

But ultimately the two governments will need to sit down and talk. It has been reported that Beijing is eager to connect with Biden's team once  in office, with the Wall Street Journal writing recently that Yang Jiechi, a member of the 25-member Politburo and a former Chinese ambassador to the U.S., would lead a delegation to Washington.

The tone of such talks will undoubtedly shed insight on how ties between the world's foremost powers might shift.

Overtaking America

Growth trajectories have long indicted that China's economy would one day surpass America's to become the world's largest. When exactly that might happen has been more of a moving target, though recently there has been a growing number of analysts projecting the pandemic pulling that date forward to as soon as 2028. There's good reason to think that's true. China this week released data that put its economic expansion last year at 2.3%. The U.S., in contrast, is expected to shrink by 3.5%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. But there are also many issues that could push that date further into the future. China's mountain of debt is a much discussed one. Just as daunting, if less in the limelight, is the country's yawning wealth divide. And of course, there could always be a resurgence in American growth.

Is It Genocide?

There's a long list of issues causing tensions between the U.S. and China. One that burned particularly hot this week was Xinjiang and China's internment of large numbers of the province's ethnic Uighur minority. Beijing has defended its policies as humane and necessary to fight extremism, but Michael Pompeo, before stepping down as U.S. secretary of state, designated China's actions there as genocide. Antony Blinken, Biden's nominee for secretary of state, would later tell a confirmation hearing that he agreed. It was then revealed that Twitter had locked the account of the Chinese Embassy to the U.S. for a tweet intended to defend Beijing's policies in Xinjiang but which the company determined violated its rules against "dehumanization." As issues go, this is one that appears set to become far more contentious.

Jack Appears

After retreating from public view for more than two months and much speculation around his whereabouts, Jack Ma reappeared this week. China's most-famous tycoon joined an annual event with rural educators via a livestream. And though his participation was for less than a minute and he said nothing about Beijing's investigations into his empire, it was enough to hearten investors to the tune of $58 billion. That's how much Alibaba's market value soared after a clip of Ma circulated online. While much about the future of his businesses remains unclear, it does seem that the stock market at least is taking this to mean that their worst-case fears — such as jail time for Ma or a government takeover of his companies — is off the table. That will not, however, reduce the level of interest in Jack's next appearance.

What We're Reading

And finally, a few other things that caught our attention:

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