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A smile with a warning

January 21, 2021
Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Dissecting messages from China is like unpacking a Russian doll. There are plenty of layers to get to the truth.

On the surface, Beijing is saying warm things about U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, of "win-win" cooperation that smooths out the natural differences the two powers will have. It's a brutal contrast to its commentary on the prior administration now Donald Trump is out the door.

President Xi Jinping is likely to talk a lot about globalization and collaboration when he addresses a virtual Davos summit of world leaders next week.

China may genuinely want a reset. But its rhetoric also carries a warning to Biden: Things got bad under Trump, and we expect you to fix it.

Take the move to sanction senior Trump-era officials, including former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, right as Biden was inaugurated. It's not about preventing Pompeo holidaying in Macau, but a marker that Beijing will strike back if the U.S. keeps criticizing it for its crackdown in Hong Kong and treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang.

The narrative on Xinjiang is particularly sensitive, with Twitter blocking the Chinese embassy in the U.S. for a post that defended policies in the region.

Biden is unlikely to be too obliging. If anything, the Democrats will escalate the critiques – a senior official has already backed an assessment that what's happening in Xinjiang is genocide.

Even if things are more collegial on issues like climate change and the pandemic, Biden needs to show Americans and Congress he's also standing up to Beijing, while Xi, heading towards a crucial party meeting next year, can't afford to be seen as weak at home.

The next few weeks are likely to set the tone. – Rosalind Mathieson

Then vice-presidents Xi and Biden visit the International Studies Learning Center in South Gate, California, in February 2012.

Photographer: Tim Rue/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Persistent divide | Biden is seeking to wipe away Trump's fingerprints from U.S. policy, but his predecessor left lasting partisan divisions in Washington that pose a risk to getting the new president's agenda through Congress. While Biden pleaded for unity in his inaugural address, his top policy priorities, including coronavirus relief, were already running into headwinds.

  • The Senate confirmed Avril Haines as director of national intelligence, the first woman to oversee the nation's spy agencies and the first member of Biden's cabinet to win approval.

Virus revamp | On his first full day in office, Biden plans to issue a sweeping set of executive orders to tackle the raging Covid-19 pandemic that will rapidly reverse or refashion many of Trump's most heavily criticized policies. Overhauling testing, using federal powers to stabilize the supply of medical equipment, and boosting vaccine distribution are among areas he'll seek to address.

  • In an effort to boost travel safety, Biden will require people to wear masks in airports and on planes and will enforce quarantines for international arrivals to the U.S.

Vaccine race | Like her key adversary, British Premier Boris Johnson, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon needs a fast vaccine rollout to boost her political fortunes. As Alastair Reed reports, she's pledged to get the first dose to the majority of the nation's adult population by mid-April, just before a local parliamentary election she's counting on to bolster her drive for another independence referendum.

  • Germany's virus fatalities passed 50,000 today, underscoring the urgency facing Chancellor Angela Merkel's government to slow the spread of the disease.
  • European Union leaders are holding a video summit today to discuss how to contain the pandemic.

Pressure cooker | Once praised for its quick response to the coronavirus outbreak, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's administration is getting hammered for failing to swiftly secure a supply of vaccines. Its inoculation program hasn't started, and a haphazard procurement process has top medical scientists, frustrated labor unions, business groups and opposition parties fuming.

A man with virus symptoms is carried inside an isolation chamber from his home in the north of Pretoria on Jan. 15.

Photographer: Phill Magakoe/AFP via Getty Images

Redefining role | Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is prioritizing more secular over religious national interests at a time of shifting geopolitical realities, the emergence of clean energy as a competitor to oil and a challenge from Turkey for leadership of the Sunni Muslim sphere. As Donna Abu-Nasr explains, the change may serve him well with Biden's rise to the presidency.

What to Watch

  • Trump's second impeachment trial remains in limbo as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds off on triggering a proceeding that could slow down the Senate's new Democratic majority and delay confirmation of key administration officials.
  • The former president's business empire has been hit hard by coronavirus closures, with revenue from his Washington and Las Vegas hotels down by more than half.
  • Russian prosecutors are seeking to block access to online calls to join protests on Saturday in support of jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny.
  • Hungary became the first EU nation to approve Russia's Sputnik V vaccine as Prime Minister Viktor Orban takes a pre-election risk to accelerate the country's exit from the Covid-19 crisis.

And finally ... Polarization, inequality and distrust have risen in some of the biggest economies, several of which have elections over the next two years. How leaders help those on the wrong side of the economic divide, and especially whether they can get the Covid-19 vaccine quickly to rich and poor citizens alike, will affect how they're graded by voters. To gauge countries' vulnerability to political disruption, we looked at indicators on everything from general pessimism to the pandemic's fallout to growing division.

A protest against a controversial security law in Paris on Nov. 28. 

Photographer: Julien Mattia/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 

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