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Brussels Edition: Lagarde’s pandemic dilemma

Brussels Edition
Bloomberg

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Does ECB President Christine Lagarde have what it takes to deal with the fallout from the coronavirus? That question will be answered today when she and her colleagues decide whether to scale up monetary support now or wait until later. While the rapidly-accelerating second wave of the virus is stoking fears of a double-dip recession in the region, meaning precautionary action may be desirable, most investors and economists believe they'll hold off from more stimulus until December. Policy makers still have some ammunition left from the last package, and they'd like time to assess the impact of the latest virus curbs, Brexit and the U.S. election. It would also leave the door open for potential good news on vaccines. But with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron the latest European leaders to announce stringent new restrictions, the risks from holding fire are rising.

John Ainger

What's Happening

Crunch Call | EU leaders knew a second pandemic wave was a near-certainty, and yet they blew it with an overly enthusiastic relaxation of the containment measures that tamed the disease last spring. They will seek ways to patch things up and keep their economies open over a call this afternoon. Here's what's on their menu of options.

Rule of Law | EU lawmakers and governments resume talks today on the rule of law mechanism, a key outstanding issue in negotiations over the bloc's 1.8 trillion-euro budget and recovery fund. Officials have expressed optimism that an accord may be near, and a breakthrough would be a welcome development given the rapidly deteriorating economic outlook. Still, disagreements over top-ups to the budget remain.

Brexit Progress | EU and U.K. negotiators made progress this week toward resolving some of the biggest disagreements that have long bedeviled the Brexit talks, raising hopes that a deal could be reached by early next month. We're told the two sides have begun work on the text of an agreement on several issues. Meanwhile, here's why the Brexit upheaval could be an opportunity for some British businesses.

RIP GDP | The damage unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic might turn out to be the catalyst for weakening our fixation with gross domestic product as a measure of economic welfare. What could replace it?

Virus Update | Macron imposed a new national lockdown until Dec.1, though unlike in the spring, schools and factories will remain open. Merkel imposed a one-month partial shutdown starting Monday, the toughest restrictions since the end of a lockdown in the spring. Here's the latest on the virus.

In Case You Missed It

Minimum Wage | Given its relatively low levels of economic inequality, you might be surprised to hear that Denmark is leading the charge against the EU's plan to establish a minimum wage. Here's why they're opposed to it.

Charlie Hebdo | The French satirical magazine is back in the spotlight, drawing the ire of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following a front-page caricature and escalating tensions between the two nations. The feud was triggered by Macron's characterization of Islam as a religion in "crisis."

Trading Places | The EU's preferred candidate to lead the World Trade Organization, Nigeria's former finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, got a key endorsement from the WTO selection committee. While it moves her a step closer to becoming the organization's first female director-general, the Trump administration's veto threw the process into turmoil.

Globalization Clubhouse | And it's not just the WTO where the world's richest nations are jostling to get their preferred candidates into key roles. The OECD's top post will also be up for grabs next year, launching a battle for who pulls the strings of the global economy. Here's who's in the running.

First Class | Move over Heathrow, Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris is now the top dog in Europe, with passengers traveling through the London hub falling 69% to 19 million in the first nine months of the year, slightly below its French counterpart. And the coronavirus's rapid rise in the U.K. may be to blame. Quelle surprise!

Chart of the Day

The resurgence of virus cases across Europe is more bad news for restaurants, which already saw months of closures during lockdowns in the spring. Last week, Ireland forced non-essential stores, bars and restaurants to shut for at least six weeks and Germany and France on Wednesday closed bars, restaurants and leisure facilities for a month. In the U.K. — which tried to reinvigorate restaurants with its 'Eat Out to Help Out' plan in August — Boris Johnson faces being forced into imposing a national lockdown against his will.

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 9 a.m. Merkel addresses the lower house of parliament in Berlin on Germany's virus response
  • 9:30 a.m. EU top court gives non-binding opinion in challenge by EU against a 2019 ruling that annulled a 2015 European Commission decision that classified some 300 million euros in capital injections and guarantees to Banca Tercas as illegal state aid
  • 10:30 a.m. EU Commission President von der Leyen speaks at Inaugural Plenary Session of the European Economic and Social Committee
  • 1 p.m. Virtual informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers on "Harnessing the digital revolution to make the mobility of the future - sustainable, safe, secure and efficient"
  • 2:30 p.m. Lagarde news conference after ECB Governing Council meeting
  • 6:30 p.m. EU leaders hold video conference to discuss latest pandemic developments
  • EU financial services chief McGuinness delivers a keynote speech via videoconference on sustainable finance at Paris 2020 Climate Finance Day

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