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A new Cold War

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

China accuses the U.S. of pushing the world toward a new Cold War. Protests return to the streets of Hong Kong. And with holidays in the U.S. and U.K. on Monday, markets are off to a muted start. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

War of Words 

The relationship between the world's two largest economies has taken a turn for the worse, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying the U.S. should give up "wishful thinking" about changing China and warning that some in America are driving towards a "new Cold War." On Sunday during his annual news briefing on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing, he also criticized the U.S. for slowing its nuclear negotiations with North Korea and warned against crossing Beijing's "red line" on Taiwan. U.S.-China relations have worsened dramatically in the past few months with clashes on a range of issues from trade to human rights and Beijing's latest move to tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Protests

Hong Kong protesters battled with riot police in busy downtown areas on Sunday, showing their opposition toward China's dramatic move to crack down on dissent in the biggest demonstration since the coronavirus swept through the city in January. Police deployed a water cannon and fired tear gas in the Causeway Bay shopping area after hundreds of protesters gathered to oppose new national security legislation from China. Police warned the crowd they were taking part in an illegal gathering, and later said in a statement that "rioters threw umbrellas, water bottles and other objects" at them. At least 180 people were arrested, mostly for illegal assembly, while at least four members of the police media liaison team were injured, according to a post on the police Facebook page.

Markets Open

Currency markets saw a placid start to trading early on Monday as traders monitored more signs of economies reopening around the world against a deepening of tensions between the U.S. and China. The Australian dollar and the offshore yuan edged lower, though trading will be light with holidays in the U.S., U.K. and Singapore. S&P 500 futures had a muted open. All eyes will be on equities in Hong Kong after a more than 5% hit on Friday. U.S. shares rallied into Friday's close, when Asia equity futures climbed. West Texas Crude oil dipped at the open. 

Abe's Headache 

Japan's coronavirus emergency could end as soon as Monday, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's political troubles may be just beginning. Abe's efforts to curb the outbreak and ease its economic damage have been widely ridiculed as slow and ineffective. He's been outshone by regional governors, who pressed him to finally call the state of emergency credited with halting the spread of infections for now. Now, a favoritism scandal has helped push his approval rating to a level that has forced past premiers to resign. Moreover, the crisis has undermined support for his economic stewardship and depleted the resources Abe will need to avert a deep recession and pull off another comeback like ones that made him the country's longest-serving premier. Here are the latest updates on the virus.

Seeking Resilient Assets

China Investment Corp. is looking for more resilient assets in markets battered by the coronavirus pandemic as the nation's $941 billion sovereign wealth fund seeks to boost long-term returns, Executive Vice President Zhao Haiying said. The Beijing-based company added to its investments in credit markets in recent months, especially investment-grade loans in the U.S., Zhao said in an interview with Bloomberg News. CIC also bolstered holdings in healthcare and information technology stocks and added exposure in regions like Asia where there was "less uncertainty" about the spread of the virus, she said. CIC sees a diversified portfolio as the best way to weather its biggest test since inception in 2007. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in this morning

Emerging markets are in a tough position at the moment. That's an understatement, of course, as developing countries are dealing with the double whammy of a major health crisis — for which many are ill-prepared — and a brewing economic crisis. And because emerging markets are huge borrowers in the international market, there are worries that we may be about to see the biggest EM debt crisis ever. For that reason, there are rumblings of another "Brady Plan" for EM, basically a new version of the arrangement that facilitated a wave of debt restructurings in the 1980s.

The sticking point this time is that the world is a very different place. There are many more private investors invested in EM debt, who for obvious reasons might not want to agree to a restructuring or debt relief. Nevertheless, some of the world's foremost sovereign debt experts are working on a plan right now and it's definitely worth learning more about it. On the most recent episode of Odd Lots, Lee Buchheit — considered to be the world's foremost expert on sovereign debt law and restructurings — Duke University's Mitu Gulati and Ugo Panizza at Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva talk about what a plan might look like. Subscribe here to hear what they had to say.

You can follow Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway at @tracyalloway.

 

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