Coronavirus is an enemy America still can’t see

Follow Us This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a data set of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda We're still fighting coronavirus without adequate data. Markets are stable but may need future rescuing. We must virus-proof the economy. Companies like Nike are built to survive coronavirus. How much danger is hard to say. Photographer: WPA Pool/Getty Images Europe We're Flying Blind Over the Battlefield Americans are used to swimming in a sea of data, from football stats for fantasy leagues to the personal info Big Tech mines to shove ads in our faces. And yet in the biggest crisis in many of our lifetimes, hard numbers are suddenly scarce. That's because we're still not testing nearly enough people for coronavirus to have any real sense of just how much this invisible enemy has infiltrated our towns, homes and businesses, writes Michael Lewis, in the first entry of an ongoing Covid-19 diary. That's one reason we're all hunkering down, regardless of infection. With more data, we could have a smarter, more targeted response. South Korea in this sense is like the Oakland A's of Lewis's "Moneyball," while America's coronavirus response is, Lewis writes, "being run about as well as the 1970 Cleveland Indians." Lewis checks in with "Moneyball" hero Bill James and finds the baseball-data guru basically grasping at straws and wishful thinking like the rest of us. The lack of numbers has even math geniuses such as James opining clumsily on epidemiology that would be better left to the experts, writes Noah Feldman. This is human nature, but it's not helping. Fortunately, there are some hard scientific facts to guide us, notes Faye Flam. Washing our hands and staying far away from people definitely help keep us safe. On the other hand, it's OK to walk and run outside (while keeping our distance), and we probably don't have to handle that box of Cocoa Puffs from the grocery store as if it's a plutonium rod. And, contrary to what you might have heard, even homemade masks aren't useless in preventing the spread of the disease, writes Justin Fox. That may be why the virus has moved so slowly in Japan and other places where mask-wearing is de rigueur. It's a good argument for spending some of your suddenly ample free time crafting masks, writes Elaine Ou. Even without data we aren't totally helpless. Further Virus-Fighting Reading: When testing treatments, we must balance speed with safety. — Max Nisen The Market Bleeding Has Stopped All it took was eleventy kajillion dollars' worth of emergency relief from Congress and the Fed, but markets seem finally to have stopped dying. For now. Mohamed El-Erian warns a lot can still go wrong, especially as we still don't have control of the virus. Policy makers will need to be ready with fresh rescues. It's hardly encouraging that the Senate is about to take a month-long vacation, in what Jonathan Bernstein describes as a breathtaking display of irresponsibility. But we'll take victories wherever we can get them. Stocks jumped for a second straight day on the latest stimulus bill. Shockingly, meanwhile, Spain and some European companies have been able to sell fresh debt at relatively low yields, even as the virus terrorizes the continent, notes Marcus Ashworth. This is a clear vote of confidence in the European Central Bank's pledge to support the market. Meanwhile, Treasury bond markets are sanguine about $2 trillion more being added to America's debt heap, notes Brian Chappatta. They trust the Fed to buy it all up if necessary. But as Mohamed notes, there are still reasons to worry. The stimulus bill nearing passage won't cover all the economy's needs. Those include the simple ability of people and businesses to pay their rent. If they can't, then we will probably have a mortgage crisis on our hands, writes Brian Chappatta. That will require still more rescuing. Senators might even have to return to Washington. Virus Trade-Offs In recent days, thanks to President Donald Trump's eagerness to wrap this whole virus thing up by Easter, the U.S. has been debating the trade-off between protecting our health and protecting our economy. As Clive Crook writes, this is not a new controversy, and it will probably never go away. China has proved an aggressive lockdown can slow Covid-19's spread and get the economy growing again in a couple of months, resulting in a huge stock-market rally, writes John Authers. But we still must decide what activity is too essential to stop and how we can eventually resume some normalcy without the virus bouncing back, writes Lionel Laurent. Meanwhile, though, the U.S. economy's flexibility should help it adjust to long periods of social distancing and weirdness, writes Karl Smith. Companies Designed for Coronavirus Survival Certainly Nike Inc. has managed to weather the storm. It reported better-than-expected quarterly results last night and even offered a helpful primer on its experience riding out China's shutdown. Nike has the size, balance sheet and digital presence to handle this nightmare, writes Andrea Felsted. Unfortunately, many other consumer brands aren't so lucky. Half the world sheltering in place and connecting with loved ones via the Internet can only be a boon for Facebook Inc., writes Alex Webb. The company says ad revenue is shaky right now, but people are forgetting their loathing of it and forming new habits that can only help in the long run. You'd think World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. would be having a moment, too, given it's the only thing selling a sports-like product at a time when every real sport in the world is closed. But how long can it keep asking wrestlers to bash each other's faces in, risking contagion, in front of empty arenas? The WWE is struggling financially, writes Tara Lachapelle, and Vince McMahon may rapidly be getting over his aversion to selling it. Further Corporations in Crisis Reading: Restricting buyouts for bailed-out companies has bipartisan support, but makes little sense. — Ramesh Ponnuru Telltale Charts Before bailing out oil companies, we must do something about their flagrantly misaligned CEO pay, writes Liam Denning. Social distancing comes more naturally to some countries than others, notes Ben Schott. Further Reading The U.K. virus response has been a disaster. — Ferdinando Giugliano  Narendra Modi's shutdown of India is a huge gamble, and those don't tend to work out well for him. — Mihir Sharma  Latin America's nationalistic tendencies won't serve it well in this crisis. — Mac Margolis  Chinese borrowers are suffering from a lack of dollars. — Anjani Trivedi  Hedge funds that have lost money in the crisis are back asking for more. — Mark Gilbert  Universities shouldn't spend their endowments on virus-fighting. We need them to stick to education and discovery. — Tyler Cowen  ICYMI Countries are starting to hoard food. Most New York City virus deaths had other illnesses. New York City has a shortage of dogs. Kickers People are skipping Zoom meetings by looping videos of themselves. (h/t Scott Kominers) Lego in the ocean take 1,300 years to degrade. (h/t Mike Smedley) Take Yale's most popular course ever, "The Science of Well Being." Take a video tour of the Winchester Mystery House. Note: Please send dogs and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022