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Five Things
Bloomberg

Fed day, the first day of trading for the world's biggest listed stock and the last day of campaigning for the U.K. election.

Decision day

Not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg expects the Federal Reserve to announce a change in interest rates at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time today. For investors the decision will be all about the outlook, with the Federal Open Market Committee updating its rate forecast through 2022. Chairman Jerome Powell will give a press conference at 2:30 p.m. where he is expected to maintain his recent upbeat tone economic expansion. 

Biggest ever

Saudi Aramco successfully became the world's most valuable public company after raising $25.6 billion in its record IPO and jumping by the daily 10% limit when the stock started trading this morning, giving the oil producer a market valuation of $1.88 trillion. The decision to list on the Riyadh stock exchange pushed the regional bourse into the world's top 10. There are a lot of unusual things about the IPO, not least of which is the tiny free-float that will give shareholders little or no say over how the company is run. 

Last day

Party leaders in the U.K. are touring marginal constituencies on the final day of campaigning ahead of tomorrow's election. A key poll released yesterday showed that while Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains on track for an overall majority, his lead is shrinking. The pound dropped after the survey was released. Anti-Brexit campaigners are putting their efforts into a tactical vote campaign in the hopes of stopping Johnson's Conservative Party gaining a majority. 

Markets mixed 

Equity investors are not making any big decisions as they wait for trade, monetary and political events to play out over the next few days. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.3% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had slid 0.2% by 5:50 a.m. in a fairly subdued session so far. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small loss at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.816% and gold was higher. 

Coming up…

U.S. inflation is expected to have picked up to 2% in November, with the core reading remaining unchanged at 2.3% when the data is published at 8:30 a.m. The U.S. crude oil inventory report is released at 10:30 a.m. As well as the Fed decision at 2:00 p.m., the U.S. November budget statement is published. Among the companies reporting earnings today are Lululemon Athletica Inc., American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and United Natural Foods Inc. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Sid's interested in this morning

Yesterday investors received a warning that a comfortable Conservative Party victory in the U.K. election this Thursday is no sure thing -- belying the cross-asset rally across sterling assets in recent months. A YouGov poll that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2017 vote showed only a weak victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson -- with even a hung Parliament within the margin of error. So it's time to think of the market implications of any Labour-led coalition in a last gasp what-if scenario. For context, the party's critics decry its radical left-wing policies favoring expansive fiscal policy, nationalization and a financial-transactions tax. All that could drive up gilt yields and a flight of foreign investors while the pound and business confidence collapse, the argument goes. Read the worrywarts here. Given his avowed agenda to redistribute income from capital to labor via taxes, Labour's election manifesto constitutes a clear attack on listed U.K. Inc. But those higher up in the capital structure would be in a stronger position. Credit investors in utility firms -- a nationalization target -- would benefit from effective state support. Gilts remain cheap relative to global peers while index-linked bonds gilts could be a screaming buy right now. If you believe that bond supply is a key factor driving yields in developed economies with monetary autonomy, don't fret. Labour would only have power through an alliance with the Liberals and Scottish National Party in return for big Brexit concessions that should be pound positive, other things being equal. The Liberals are relatively conservative on economic policy -- and any confidence and supply arrangement would likely crack under weight of its policy contradictions soon enough.

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