Another government shutdown? Don't rule it out.

BloombergOpinion Early Returns

Jonathan Bernstein

And just like that, we're into another countdown to a government shutdown, with President Donald Trump refusing to rule out the possibility. This time, the details are proving problematic. The broad outlines for 2020 spending were already agreed to over the summer. But the fiscal year started on Oct. 1 without passage of the spending bills that were supposed to be signed into law — once again, the holdup was over Trump's border wall — so Congress put funding on autopilot up until Nov. 21. If there's no agreement by then, and if there's not another temporary bill, the government will shut down. Again. Is it likely? It shouldn't be. Remember, the first rule of extended shutdowns — anything more than, say, a long weekend — is that they only happen when one side wants it and has the votes. It's incredibly easy to keep the government's doors open; all it takes is a one-page bill changing the expiration date, which could get through Congress in an afternoon. So even if the two sides can't immediately reach an agreement, they could always keep the money flowing while negotiations continue. Plus, Republicans should've learned their lesson by now. In 1994, 2013 and last winter, they thought a shutdown would be to their advantage. All three times, it turned out to be a really poor idea that didn't work at all as a negotiating tactic and didn't give them a boost in public opinion. This suggests they'll be reluctant to go along with the president if he wants another one. And he'd need their support: If a temporary measure passes with the backing of both parties, Trump might well block it only to have Congress override his veto.   He got that support in December 2018, but it eventually collapsed and he didn't get the wall funding he wanted. Would Republicans back him again this time? It seems unlikely that they'd forget a lesson they learned so recently. And it was one thing to take a public-opinion hit last winter just after the midterm elections; it's quite another to do so now with another election looming: A lot of potential House candidates are deciding whether to run or not and Senate campaigns are already well underway.  So I'd like to assure everyone that the shutdown talk is just posturing and negotiating. Unfortunately, Trump has a tendency to make the same mistakes multiple times, and congressional Republicans have demonstrated they're sometimes willing to go along. The main point is that a shutdown will happen if and only if one side really wants it to. And while all the incentives seem to be lined up against the idea, they were lined up against the first shutdown too. 1. Good Sean Trende item on why candidates with little support now could still win. I have some disagreements — I'm not sure the large field matters much, I don't think candidates who fail to qualify for the debates have a realistic chance, and just because John Kasich stayed in for a long time in 2016 doesn't mean he came close to winning the nomination — but I agree with the main point he makes. 2. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Francis Wilkinson reports on surprisingly cheerful Democrats in Iowa. 3. Geoffrey Skelley looks at the Senate races one year out. 4. Jeff Singer at Daily Kos previews what's on the ballots on Tuesday. 5. Kellie Carter Jackson at Made by History on "Harriet" and Harriet Tubman. 6. And Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins at the Monkey Cage on daylight saving time. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.

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