Bond yields collapse | Trump’s trade war: What’s the endgame? | $15 trillion in negative yields
EDITOR'S NOTE
It's a tough week to be holding risky assets. Instead of stocks, investors are rushing to the safety of government bonds as the world prepares for a U.S.-China trade war without an end in sight.
The flight to safety sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and auto loans — to a low of 1.595%, the lowest level since autumn 2016. Bond yields move inversely to their prices, so yields fall when investors are buying up Treasurys. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond bottomed at around 2.12%, near its all-time low hit in 2016, CNBC's Tom Franck reports. Investors were also watching a longtime recession gauge: the spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield. That hit its lowest level since June 2007.
The plummet in rates Wednesday also comes after central banks in India, New Zealand and Thailand surprised markets in overnight trading with aggressive rate cuts, joining a growing global shift toward easier monetary policy. It's not just lower rates — negative-yielding government bonds now make up 25% of the global bond market, according to Deutsche Bank. That's about $15 trillion of government bonds worldwide trading at negative yields. The number has nearly tripled since October 2018.
Investors blame central banks, the China-U.S. trade war, deflationary technology and a global shift in demographics for this phenomenon. The good news is that U.S. Treasurys, while hovering near all-time lows, still pay at least something. But as CNBC's Al Lewis points out, in the end, none of this is a good sign for the economy.
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