Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. Some European rate-setters are warning against more stimulus, equity markets reacted positively to trade war news and Hurricane Dorian is set to hit Florida in the coming days. Here's what's moving markets. Loud Hawks European Central Bank hawks have been sounding alarm bells over more stimulus, two weeks before they next meet to discuss bolstering the euro-zone economy. The Dutch central-bank governor Klaas Knot said on Thursday that the outlook isn't yet weak enough to warrant the resumption of bond purchases. He echoed comments by Germany's Jens Weidmann, who a few days earlier said speculation over a large stimulus package "doesn't do justice" to the latest data. Trade Hope President Donald Trump offered another positive trade war update, saying the U.S. and China are scheduled to have a conversation, although he didn't give details. China extended an olive branch to the U.S. Thursday when it indicated that it wouldn't immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase, breaking with its usual precedent. The gesture offers a glimmer of hope for traders looking for tensions to cool. Talks Intensify The U.K. and the EU will ramp up Brexit talks in the coming weeks with British officials set to meet their EU counterparts at least twice a week in September in search of a breakthrough. Both sides appeared to play down the chances of an imminent resolution. The talks will intensify at a time when U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces opposition lawmakers and rebels in his own party looking to obstruct his plans. Get ready for another big week of Brexit-related drama from Monday. Stocks Green, Oil Shines There's lots of green on equity screens this morning as Asian investors digest trade optimism. That's after the European benchmark Stoxx 600 Index and the U.S. S&P 500 had their best day in a week. That ECB commentary wasn't enough to stop the euro slipping against the dollar overnight, while the fallout from Johnson's proroguing has the pound lower for a third day. Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain since mid-July after a sizable drop in American crude inventories. Coming Up... Hurricane Dorian is expected to make landfall on Florida's east coast either Sunday night or Monday, becoming the first major hurricane to hit the area in 15 years. That's a concern for orange juice farmers, while insurers and the oil industry will also have an interest. It's a light Friday in terms of corporate earnings. On the economic data front, euro zone unemployment and inflation, Italy unemployment are all forecast to remain steady. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning European cyclical shares are finally cracking. Having held their ground in the face of deteriorating economic data for much of the year, sectors such as miners, banks, energy and insurance stocks have borne the brunt of the market sell-off in August. As my colleague Michael Msika pointed out this week, that has pushed Stoxx 600 cyclical shares to a three-year low relative to their defensive peers. While September can't come soon enough for most investors, a new month means a fresh wave of economic updates on the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Key among them is a range of Purchasing Manager Indices across the globe, many of which will come next week. Among 27 major countries tracked by Markit, about 70% currently have PMI readings below 50, indicating contraction in activity. If that trend continues, expect cyclicals to stay under pressure. Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. |
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