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The squid game economy

Hello. Today we look at debt and disparity in South Korea, the gulf between America and China on trade, and the latest winners of the Nobel prize for economics.

Squid Game

It's no coincidence that the macabre TV sensation "Squid Game" originates from South Korea. 

While the country's top-line growth has been impressive throughout Covid thanks to the global boom in devices used to watch hit Netflix shows on smart phones and tablets, heavy debt loads and yawning disparities have created deep socioeconomic problems.

It's this debt trap that forms the backdrop for "Squid Game," which tells the story of 456 desperately indebted people who play a series of deadly children's games in a bid to survive and win a fortune — all for the amusement of a handful of super rich VIPs who watch on.

As Bloomberg Economics's Justin Jimenez writes, growth in debt has largely outpaced that of nominal GDP as tepid wage gains and rising living costs have forced people to borrow. And with economic prospects dwindling and interest rates slashed to a record low during the pandemic, younger Koreans have taken on even more debt to purchase assets — from property to stocks to cryptocurrencies — betting that speculation is the only route to succeed financially.  That's making housing even costlier. 

Read the full research on the Bloomberg Terminal.

For some it's just all too hard. Some in the younger generation known as Sampos are opting out, giving up on the quest for a home, career, partner and children. Tragically, that despair has driven many to end their lives — contributing to a suicide rate that is the highest in the OECD.

Despite numerous measures from President Moon Jae-in's administration to cool housing costs, average apartment prices across the country have jumped more than 70% over the past five years. That's clearly now on the central bank's radar — while it held off from a second-straight rate hike on Tuesday, it signaled further moves are likely in the pipeline due to rapidly rising home prices, inflation pressures and recovery momentum. 

Many of the economic themes underlying "Squid Game" are relevant to other advanced economies with rising debt, gaping inequality and a growing sense among young people that they just can't get ahead. The question for policy makers is whether they watch on as the VIPs do in the show, or can they step in to make the game a little fairer for all.   

Malcolm Scott

The Economic Scene

Kristalina Georgieva will remain as the managing director of the International Monetary Fund after the lender's board reviewed accusations that she improperly influenced a World Bank ranking of China's business climate.

"The executive board considered that the information presented in the course of its review did not conclusively demonstrate that the managing director played an improper role regarding the Doing Business 2018 Report when she was CEO of the World Bank," the fund said.

Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put Georgieva on notice that the "U.S. believes proactive steps must be taken to reinforce data integrity and credibility at the IMF."

Even with the backing, the allegations against Georgieva and her subsequent fight for her job threaten to overshadow the annual meetings of the two institutions — which kicked off in Washington Monday. The Fund updates its World Economic Outlook later today. 

The accusations will likely also impact Georgieva's remaining time at the IMF, which is expected to deliver unbiased analysis and serve as an honest broker and tough advice-giver among governments, especially those seeking its aid. 

Read our full story here

Today's Must Reads

  • HK vs Singapore | The divide between Asia's two main financial hubs in handling the pandemic is growing, with one opening up to global travel and the other sticking to one of the world's harshest quarantine policies.
  • Tax hurdle | An obscure legal question in the U.S. threatens to kill a global tax accord as congressional hearings near. 
  • China-U.S. differences | The U.S. and China are still far apart on economic and trade questions, with recent statements from both sides showing just how big that gap remains.
  • Pret index | More bankers in London's financial districts are buying lattes and returning to their desks every week. It's a different story in New York, where transaction volumes at Pret cafes in the area of downtown Manhattan that includes Wall Street and Tribeca retreated.
  • Argentina aid | The IMF's board of directors turned down a request by Argentina to discuss relief on the commissions the country pays for its record loan, a setback for the government.
  • U.K. hiring | Companies pushed the number of workers on payrolls above pre-coronavirus levels last month. But consumers were also forced to increase spending on fuel at the fastest pace in two years last month. 
  • Traffic jam | Off the southern coast of China, the number of vessels waiting to enter one of the world's busiest ports jumped to the most since August, threatening to further snarl global supply chains. 
  • Industrial vision | French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a 30-billion-euro ($35 billion) plan to create the high-tech champions of the future and reverse years of industrial decline. 

Need-to-Know Research

Three U.S.-based academics won the 2021 Nobel Prize for economics for work using experiments that draw on real-life situations to revolutionize empirical research. David Card at the University of California Berkeley, Joshua D. Angrist of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Guido W. Imbens at Stanford University will share the award, officials of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced in Stockholm on Monday. 

"This year's economic sciences laureates have demonstrated that many of society's big questions can be answered," the academy said on Twitter. "Their solution is to use natural experiments — situations arising in real life that resemble randomized experiments."

Read our story here.

On #EconTwitter

Will the Nobel Prize become a family affair?

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