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5 things to start your day

Good morning. Daimler's decision to split, a huge hedge on the S&P 500 and back-and-forth over U.S. infrastructure. Here's what's moving markets.

Bad Month

Asian stocks and U.S. futures started October on the back foot, after overnight losses in the S&P 500 capped its biggest monthly selloff since March 2020. U.S. benchmarks fell Thursday even after confirmation that the House passed a nine-week spending bill to avert a U.S. government shutdown. The S&P 500 closed at the lowest level since July, extending its September losses to almost 5%. Economically sensitive companies like industrials and financials were among the worst performers.

Separate Ways

Daimler shareholders vote today on spinning off the industrial giant's truck-making division from its Mercedes-Benz luxury car operations. It's a watershed decision, meant to make the businesses more nimble amid shifting trends, and could boost the valuations of both companies. Mercedes plans to retain a 35% stake in its truck firm and hopes for the business to enter the DAX, Germany's benchmark stock index. The trucking management will update investors on strategy next month.

Mystery Trade

A trader just established a massive hedging position via options to protect a portfolio of stocks in the event that the S&P 500's losses snowball toward 20% during the fourth quarter. The trader Thursday morning bought 45,300 put-spread collars -- options cocktails that combine various strike prices in a single strategy -- on the S&P 500 for $94 million. "It's a portfolio protection trade," commented one firm.

Sent Home

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent lawmakers home Thursday night without voting on a $550 billion infrastructure bill, with plans to try again today after moderate and progressive Democrats failed to reach an agreement on the rest of President Joe Biden's economic agenda. Top White House officials deployed to the Capitol to meet with warring Democratic factions at odds over the size and scope of Biden's agenda, which includes a tax and spending plan totaling as much as $3.5 trillion and the infrastructure legislation.

Coming Up…

European stocks are set to tumble on the first day of the new quarter, tracking declines in the U.S. and Asia. Wall Street had its biggest monthly selloff since March 2020, while U.S. House Democrats delayed a vote on the infrastructure deal. China is also set to further disrupt Europe's energy crunch after ordering state-owned firms to secure fuel supplies. Today's agenda is lighter, with Eurozone inflation among the key data points to watch for. In the U.S., Fed Presidents from Philadelphia and Cleveland will speak. And the delayed Expo 2020 global trade fair in Dubai opens as one of the world's biggest in-person events since the pandemic started.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac is interested in this morning

The corollary of a stronger dollar is a weaker euro, and the common currency has taken a pummeling over the last month. It weakened in September against eight of its 10 biggest peers and barely edged ahead of the other two. On Thursday, it fell below the closely watched $1.16 level for the first time since July last year, and technicals suggest a drop to at least $1.15. The rationale behind the move is easy to explain -- the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift on rates last month contrasted nicely with a still dovish European Central Bank. That's pushed the real yield differential in the U.S. bond market to the highest since March 2020 versus German bunds -- increasing the attractiveness of American assets. The dollar is also benefiting from a haven bid as investors balk at the growing wall of worry facing global markets -- from tapering to stagflation to China's slowdown to negotiations on the U.S. debt ceiling. While the selling in the euro looks overdone in the short-term -- its relative strength index is below the key 30 level -- pressure on the common currency is likely to remain.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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