| Caution on U.S. stocks, China debate heats up, and Bitcoin nurses losses. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG are all cautioning investors on the outlook for U.S. equities. Citing "outsize risks" to growth through October, Morgan Stanley slashed American stocks to underweight and global equites to equal-weight. With the Delta variant continuing to slow the return to normal, and policy debates in Washington getting bogged down, the bull case is getting harder to make. Citigroup said that bullish positions in U.S. stocks currently outnumber bearish ones by 10 to 1, meaning that any correction could quickly become amplified. The debate on Wall Street over investments in China is heating up, with billionaire investor Ray Dalio saying the opportunities in the nation cannot be neglected. His comments come the day after George Soros criticized BlackRock Inc.'s push into the country as both a risk to clients' money and U.S. security interests. Meanwhile, government mouthpiece publication The People's Daily ran a front page editorial trying to ease foreign investor concerns that President Xi Jinping's regulatory crackdown would hurt them. One unusual thing that Xi's polices are causing is a robust public debate within China, something rarely allowed under Communist Party rule. El Salvador's official adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender did not go as well as might have been hoped, with the introduction marred by technical problems and a 17% plunge in the digital token. While the worst of the selloff was recovered yesterday, Bitcoin is falling again today and was trading at $46,200 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time. For El Salvador, the new currency might work for retail payments, but there are increasing signs the bond market is becoming nervous about the country's prospects with its entire yield curve now inverted. With the outlook for growth coming under increasing pressure, global equity investors are busy taking some risk off the table. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.8% higher, with the rally driven by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's decision to effectively step down. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had dropped 0.9% by 5:50 a.m. as traders remained cautious ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision. S&P 500 futures pointed to a move lower at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.355%, oil rose and gold was slightly higher. U.S. job openings data for July is at 10:00 a.m. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold policy unchanged when it announces its latest monetary policy decision, also at 10:00 a.m. The U.S. sells $38 billion of 10-year notes at 1:00 p.m. The Fed Beige Book is at 2:00 p.m. and consumer credit for July is at 3:00 p.m. Lululemon Athletica Inc., SentinelOne Inc. and retail-investor favorite GameStop Corp. are among the companies reporting results today. Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. Remember GameStop? Back in January it surged about 17x in a matter of two weeks and was the poster-child of retail mania. Everything that seemed crazy about the market seemed to be encapsulated in that name. Well, people don't talk about it as much, but the stock is still trading at $199 compared with about $10 a year ago. Of course, by today's standards, GameStop almost seems like a boring old blue chip. There's actually a story there with Ryan Cohen and the new management and the plans to turn it all around. Compared with newer things like AMC, various crypto currencies, and NFTs of drawings of rocks, GameStop is boring. Back in January, I argued that you never know where in a mania you are in real time. What can feel like a "this is the top" moment, may turn out to just be the beginning. It's impossible to say, except in retrospect. This meme I saw yesterday basically nailed it. Bloomberg Bloomberg Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter at @TheStalwart Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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