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5 things to start your day

Jobs data due, the latest on China's regulatory crackdown and herd immunity gets harder. 

Employment focus

Private jobs data from ADP will probably show that employers added 683,000 positions in July, a decrease from June's 692,000. The latest figures come as businesses grow increasingly desperate to hire help. As firms compete to find cooks, truck operators and other scarce workers, more employers are starting to include wage ranges in postings. Gig workers may soon find themselves in a precarious position as the Biden administration starts to wind down the first federal-level program geared toward freelancers. A new moratorium on evictions meanwhile aims to keep tenants who are in arrears from losing their homes until Oct. 3.

China softens

Tencent Holdings Ltd. clawed back some losses as Chinese state media softened their criticisms of the video-game industry a day after a harshly-worded article sparked a rout. While the editorial in the People's Daily avoided calling video games "spiritual opium," greater scrutiny of the sector seems likely, with Tencent weighing a ban on kids gaming in response. The firm's boss, Pony Ma, has lost almost $14 billion over the past nine months amid China's regulatory crackdown. Meanwhile, the country's broadest Covid-19 outbreak since the beginning of the pandemic spurred Nomura Holdings Inc. to lower its projection for third-quarter growth to 5.1% from 6.4%.

Delta threat

The outbreak of the highly transmissible delta variant has just pushed the threshold for herd immunity higher to more than 80% and possibly almost 90%, according to the Infectious Diseases Society of America. To put that in context: So far nearly 60% of Americans have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and about 50% have been fully vaccinated, representing about 165 million people. With delta threatening Biden's public health goals, the president criticized the pandemic response of the Florida and Texas governors -- both Republicans leaders of states that accounted for about a third of all new U.S. cases in the past week combined. More U.S. employers are backtracking on return-to-office plans and instituting vaccination requirements or incentives for on-site workers.

Markets climb

Technology shares are leading global stocks higher as worries over China's gaming clampdown ease. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.5% lower. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was up 0.6% by 5:21 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures pointed to a flat open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.17% and oil hovered around $70 a barrel. 

Coming up... 

Following ADP employment figures at 8:15 a.m. ET, we get final services and composite PMIs for July at 9:45 a.m. The EIA crude oil inventory report is due at 10:30 a.m. Among companies reporting earnings today are General Motors Co., Uber Technologies Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. 

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

  • Biden says Cuomo should resign.
  • Cohen SPAC to merge with business services firm Pico. 
  • Trump's endorsed candidate wins Republican primary in Ohio.
  • Fishless fish are coming.
  • NYC's top dining rooms to start requiring proof of vaccination.
  • Big city life isn't making you depressed.
  • Light detected behind a black hole for the first time.

And finally, here's what Justina's interested in this morning

Yesterday we got the clearest sense of what U.S. regulators have in mind for crypto. In a line he's surely thought very hard about, SEC Commissioner Gary Gensler said he's neutral about the tech, but not about investor protection.

This was predictably met with groans and mockery in some crypto corners, but a common refrain among those trying to bring more institutional money into crypto these days is how important regulatory clarity is. This is partly why some of the world's largest crypto exchanges don't allow U.S. users. In recent months, we've also seen large exchanges like Binance become more regulation-friendly. It seems like for those thriving on scale, compliance is inevitable and even desirable. When I talk to crypto fund managers from a background in traditional finance, they stress how regulatory clarity is the biggest hurdle in bringing in major sources of institutional money such as pensions. This is especially important for crypto derivatives that are now an increasingly important instrument for professional traders but whose legal status are ambiguous.

So clearer regulations could be good news for the space in terms of simply attracting more money and building bigger, mainstream companies. It's less clear what will happen to the thriving fringes of the ecosystem such as smaller tokens since Gensler sees them as unregistered securities. So crypto could go more mainstream, but less fun and wacky. Does that mean it's lost its ethos? We'll see.

Follow Bloomberg's Justina Lee on Twitter at @justinaknope

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