Good morning. New ECB guidance, Johnson's warning, the G-20's tax plan and Branson in space. Here's what's moving markets. New Guidance AheadEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told investors to prepare for new guidance on monetary stimulus in 10 days, and signaled that fresh measures might be brought in next year to support the euro-area economy after the current emergency bond program ends. Lagarde also said she expects the ECB's current bond-buying plan to run "at least" until March 2022. Still, she dismissed the need to discuss when emergency stimulus might be wound down, saying she's only "guardedly optimistic" about the recovery because the delta variant of the coronavirus poses a threat to efforts to resume normal life. Remain VigilantPrime Minister Boris Johnson will warn people to remain vigilant as he prepares to lift virtually all remaining coronavirus restrictions in England. In a news conference on Monday, Johnson is widely expected to confirm that mandatory curbs will end as planned on July 19, including the legal requirement to wear masks in indoor settings. Johnson's downbeat tone contrasts with the recent optimism of his cabinet ministers as England approaches so-called "Freedom Day" as infections have risen sharply in the last week. Tax PlansU.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will press European Union officials in Brussels this week to reconsider their plan to propose a digital levy after securing the Group of Twenty's endorsement for the principles of a global corporate-tax agreement. The Treasury chief is set to make the case for the EU to hold off on unveiling its plan for a bloc-wide digital levy on online sales. The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, has delayed the rollout until July 20 amid pressure to withdraw it or show that it's compatible with the global effort on how and where to tax the profits of multinational companies. Branson Blast OffBillionaire Richard Branson's long-awaited test flight to space, taken alongside five of his Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. employees, bolsters the company's plan to debut tourism trips next year. The suborbital journey kicks off a landmark month for the future of space tourism, with Branson looking to demonstrate Virgin Galactic's capabilities nine days before Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos plans to fly on a rocket made by Blue Origin, his space venture. Both companies envision businesses catering to wealthy tourists willing to pay top dollar for a short period of weightlessness and an unforgettable view of the Earth and heavens. Coming Up…European stock-futures are trading flat, while U.S. futures are slightly lower following gains in Asia. Oil steadied after a two-day gain and the dollar is slightly higher. The earnings and economic agenda in Europe is quiet on Monday. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Brussels Monday and Tuesday following the gathering of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Venice, which concluded Saturday with the group's call to finish work on the global plan's details by October. What We've Been ReadingThis is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morningAny suggestion that the Fed is going to have to deal with an overheating U.S. economy has more or less evaporated from the bond market. As my colleagues Ye Xie and Liz Capo McCormick noted Friday, swaps traders expect the central bank's next hiking cycle will finish with rates well below the so-called terminal rate -- the level which would be neutral for economic growth. Forwards showing where one-month rates will stand in five years time have tumbled far from this year's high in late March and are nowhere near the median dot representing the Fed's long-run projections. That suggest investors have decided the inflationary risk is a temporary one and what lies on the other side is the lackluster growth that marked much of the decade before the pandemic. That's in line with with at least part of the explanation for moves in Treasuries last week, when benchmark yields fell to as low as 1.25%. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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