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Global allies near historic deal in their push for a more balanced international corporate tax system. OPEC+ deal hangs in the balance after key member rebels. HSBC launches probe after racism report. Here's what you need to know.

Tax Resistance

The Biden administration and global allies scored a major victory Thursday in their push for a more balanced international corporate tax system, but still face multiple significant obstacles to completing an ambitious plan that has been years in the making. The boost came during a round of talks hosted by the OECD, where 130 countries and jurisdictions backed a plan to set a minimum corporate tax rate and establish a new regime for sharing the taxes imposed on the profits of multinational firms, like Facebook and Alphabet's Google. But the agreement remains well short of a done deal, with a handful of countries refusing to sign on. Key resistance came from three EU members, any one of which could prevent the 27-member bloc from implementing the plan.

Positive Data

Asian stocks looked poised for a steady start after strong economic data took Wall Street to another record, amid a tilt to sectors that benefit from the U.S. reopening. Data showed solid U.S. manufacturing expansion and a larger-than-expected drop in jobless claims. Futures edged up in Japan and Australia and were little changed in Hong Kong. The dollar strengthened and Treasuries inched up ahead of Friday's monthly payrolls report, which will help guide views on when the Federal Reserve may start pulling back on stimulus. Oil pushed higher.

Rebel, Rebel

The OPEC+ alliance descended into bitter infighting after a key member blocked a deal to boost output at the last minute, forcing the group to postpone its meeting and casting doubt on an agreement that could ease a surge in oil prices. The standoff between the United Arab Emirates and the rest of the cartel could ultimately mean that OPEC+ won't increase production at all, according to a delegate. Without a deal it would fall back on existing terms that call for output to remain unchanged until April 2022. That would squeeze an already tight market, risking an inflationary price spike.

New HQ

Goldman Sachs is preparing to move its Japan headquarters into a new tower being built in Tokyo as part of a push to return its workforce to the office. The U.S. investment bank plans to relocate from the landmark Roppongi Hills complex owned by Mori Building, into the developer's tentatively named Toranomon Hills Station Tower sometime after its completion. The plans are in line with Goldman Sachs's commitment to office life, a stance at odds with some of its rivals who are looking to pare space after the pandemic ushered in a wave of remote work. Meanwhile, Apple plans to test a hybrid in-store and work-from-home arrangement for retail employees, acknowledging that consumers may continue to prefer shopping online even as the pandemic eases. 

Brutal Weather

Extreme temperatures in China coupled with a lack of hydro-power forced blackouts in some of its largest industrial cities last month. A rare subtropical storm popped up in the South Atlantic off Argentina and Uruguay. And record heat continues to sear Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The culprit behind these events is increasingly clear and obvious: climate change. Summer in the Northern Hemisphere is just days old, but it's already off to a wild start — and worse may be yet to come

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Cormac's interested in today

Like many things in this world, from coffee cups to monster trucks, the reflation trade is biggest in America. The 180-day correlation between the MSCI USA Value and Growth Indexes — a gauge of how closely they move together — has slumped to an all-time low 0.43, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1997. A maximum possible correlation of 1.0 would signify all the shares are moving in lockstep. Equivalent measures for Asian shares have rebounded in recent months to around the 0.7 level, while in Europe correlations look to have bottomed a little over 0.6.

The data suggest U.S. fund managers have been most enthusiastic making reflation bets, and are therefore most exposed should the strategy unwind. In other regions, most notably Asia ex-Japan, investor excitement toward reflation plays hasn't been as extreme. The reflation trade has been in flux recently, not least as market participants reconsider the path of U.S. rate hikes after a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve. The data reinforce the idea that a decision on whether it will reignite or fizzle out is the key call for U.S. fund managers this year.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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