Iran countdown

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While Iran is moving ahead with efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear pact, tomorrow's presidential election could significantly narrow the time that world powers have left to strike a deal. The winner is almost certain to be Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline former judge who's hostile to the West and is widely considered to be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's preferred successor. Iran insists the departure of moderate Hassan Rouhani, who was key to the agreement that lifted economic sanctions and curtailed its atomic program, won't affect talks to bring the deal back online after then-President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out in 2018. But an accord probably needs to be sealed before Rouhani steps down in August. That's a tight schedule given, according to France, "significant disagreements" remain. One sticking point is likely to be over who moves first — Iran to curtail its nuclear work, or the U.S. to lift sanctions. A revived deal could see the Islamic Republic return to global oil markets. Iran's neighbors are also watching closely. Raisi has said he supports nuclear diplomacy, but also downplayed it as a "marginal matter." His relationship with the U.S. is already fraught: Washington sanctioned him in 2019 for his alleged role in a deadly crackdown on citizens protesting against vote fraud. Human rights groups accused him of presiding over trials leading to mass executions of political prisoners in 1988. That adds another challenge to the West's already complicated push to curtail a nuclear program Iran says is peaceful but that Washington and its allies believe is aimed at bomb-making. — Sylvia Westall

Supporters of Raisi gather during a rally in Tehran on Tuesday. Source: Anadolu Agency Check out all our biggest stories on the Bloomberg Politics web page here and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

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