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Good morning. Netanyahu on the brink of being unseated, the EU on track to reach 70% of adults vaccinated in July, and Biden modifies Trump's China measures. Here's what's moving markets.

70% in July

The European Union passed 250 million vaccinations and is on track to reach its target of inoculating 70% of adults in July, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. That's gradually closing the gap with efforts in Britain, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated that the nation remains on course to lift restrictions this month, while urging caution. Meanwhile, Germany is exploring ways to prevent a potential new wave after the summer, and it will probably need to buy Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, officials said.

Tit-for-tat

Germany has suspended permits for incoming flights from Russia, including airlines Aeroflot and S7. The German Transport Ministry cited an "underlying reciprocal practice" as permits for Lufthansa flights planned in June were still pending in Moscow on Wednesday. Russia unilaterally suspended bilateral agreements on airline traffic in March 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Since then, air transportation services between Germany and Russia have been approved in reduced numbers, partly on a monthly basis and reciprocally.

Coalition

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid succeeded in forming a coalition that is now set to end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's record-long grip on power. Under the arrangement that seemed far-fetched just weeks ago, Lapid, a centrist, is to share power with nationalist Naftali Bennett, who would be Netanyahu's immediate replacement. And in a historic first, an Arab faction is to become part of an Israeli governing alliance. The coalition, sewn up less than an hour before a midnight deadline, will be brought before parliament for ratification within the coming week. 

Tweaks

President Joe Biden plans to amend a U.S. ban on investments in companies linked to China's military this week, after the Trump-era policy was challenged in court and left investors confused about the extent of its reach to subsidiary firms, people familiar with the matter said. The amended order, which Biden is expected to sign later this week, will change the criteria for blacklisting entities to capture those that operate in the defense or surveillance technology sectors. The Trump order targeted companies owned, controlled or otherwise affiliated with the Chinese military. Chinese stocks are rising today.

Coming Up…

European stocks are set to open higher, matching Asia equities and U.S. futures. Today's earnings agenda includes retailer B&M European Value, explosives maker Chemring, water utility Pennon and cognac maker Remy Cointreau. In the U.S., Broadcom and apparel retailer Lululemon report, though all eyes will be on the gravity-defying rally of AMC Entertainment. In the world of macro data, U.S. initial jobless claims will be closely watched.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

A cooling off in global growth expectations is a good time for investors to reconsider their exposure to cyclicals. They have had a stunning pandemic rebound with a Goldman Sachs gauge of the cohort up 108% since its March 2020 low, versus a 61% rise in its defensive equivalent. That might be enough outperformance for now. Peering through the traditional stock-market looking-glass of six-to-nine months ahead, we should hopefully see the coronavirus in retreat, but also the pace of the global economic recovery slowing, with easy comparables behind us and a reduction in fiscal-support programs. The global economy will find itself facing the headwind of a $20 trillion-plus debt pile, at a time when interest rates are close to moving higher if they haven't already and monetary support is being withdrawn. The supply-chain crisis is likely to have eased, but at the risk of an disinflationary inventory glut if companies overcompensate for current shortages by ordering too much. China is already seeing signs of weakness appear -- its credit impulse growth turned negative in April, an ominous sign for a leading indicator that also tracks the outperformance of cyclicals. Commentators have also begun to discuss a peak in U.S. growth and any Federal Reserve taper talk will surely ignite discussion about the end of the current economic cycle. The above dynamic undermines arguments that favor economically-sensitive cyclical shares as markets always take more notice of the second derivative (rate of change of growth) than the first (growth level).

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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