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Follow Us Get the newsletter Good morning. A big Fed decision, China in spotlight, Israel air strikes and Oracle weakness. Here's what's moving markets. Watch the Dots With inflation accelerating and the job market tightening, today's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will be among the most watched, and possibly "the most important in Chair Jay Powell's career,'' billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones said on CNBC. The committee is all but certain to hold interest rates near zero and repeat a vow to keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace, but it may consider moving up a discussion on scaling back stimulus and penciling in a first interest rate hike as soon as 2023. Wall Street's initial focus will be on the "dot plot," which displays projections of the target rate. Ill Indeed China has ordered state enterprises to control risk and limit exposure to overseas commodities markets, according to people with knowledge of the matter, in the latest step in the government's campaign to exercise control over soaring raw materials prices. Meanwhile, tensions between the world's two biggest economies is rising. China lashed out at the U.S., calling the country "very ill indeed," after President Joe Biden secured support from European allies to present a more united front against Beijing. Sponsored Content by Global X ETFs Investing in the Next Wave of Innovation Traditional sectors are becoming more enmeshed with emerging technologies, in what is called the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We recently explored what Industry 4.0 means for investors and how disruptive themes can potentially be captured in a portfolio. Global X ETFs Ready for All Israel launched air strikes on Gaza on Wednesday in the first fighting since an 11-day conflict last month killed hundreds of people in the Hamas-ruled territory. The military acted in response to incendiary balloons sent across the border and the Israel Defense Forces said it was "ready for all scenarios, including the resumption of hostilities, in the face of continued terrorist operations from the Gaza strip." The violence comes two days after Naftali Bennett took office as Israel's prime minister, ending Benjamin Netanyahu's 12 years in power.  Losing Steam Software stocks could be a focus in Europe today after Oracle shares declined as the U.S. firm's quarterly sales failed to satisfy robust investor expectations for its cloud-computing business and it gave a profit forecast that fell short of projections. Investors have pushed up the stock this year on enthusiasm for the cloud, but the company lags far behind market leader Amazon.com in that area. Meanwhile, Citigroup slipped as it became the latest lender to signal that revenue from the bank's trading operations will probably slump as a pandemic-driven trading boom runs out of steam. Coming Up… European stocks look set to follow Asia's muted lead as traders keep their powder dry ahead of the Fed decision. It will be the first time Fed officials publish their projections for rates, employment and crucially inflation since March. U.K. inflation is also among the day's announcements, as well as U.S. oil inventories and Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures. U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva today, and in a quiet day for earnings, U.S. house builder Lennar is one of the few big firms reporting.  What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.  Airbnb's nightmare millions.  Buy less oil, say oil companies. Banks risk bond sale ban. Ronaldo snubs Coca-Cola. Video game-maker's comeback. Weinstein extradition. AstraZeneca antibody failure. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning Enthusiasts for a new commodities super cycle are keeping quiet this month as everything from copper to corn to lumber looks to roll over. The retreat comes just as investors had been sold on the idea of further gains in raw materials prices -- "long commodities" just pipped Bitcoin as the most crowded trade in markets, according to the latest Bank of America fund manager survey. That's often a sign of at least a relative top. A look at the copper-gold ratio -- a good gauge of sentiment on the global economy -- shows it has moved lower in line with Treasury yields. That would tie in with expectations of peak growth, as investors look through to the normalization of the global economy, and signs of slowing Chinese demand. Copper import premiums paid by Chinese buyers are tanking and inventories in LME warehouses in Asia reached the highest in almost a year. Still, oil is keeping the commodity flag flying, rising to its highest since 2018. That's helping limit the losses on the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which is only down about 2% from its recent high. But further declines would be another blow to the reflation trade, which is already under pressure from falling bond yields.  Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Europe newsletter. 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