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Good morning. Travel within Europe becomes easier, Atlantic ties are strained and there's a closely-watched OPEC+ meeting. Here's what's moving markets.

Relaxation

Good news for the vaccinated — the European Union plans to lift all quarantine requirements starting in July, using a digital passport indicating vaccination status, the Guardian reported. In another sign the region is on track toward normality, Germany's Angela Merkel said she's ready to let the country's controversial lockdown law lapse. In a move that effectively suspended states' rights, Germany passed mandatory restrictions in hard-hit areas, including curfews, in April. The powers were set to expire at the end of June, and Merkel confirmed that those "can run out now."

Flow Control

OPEC+ is meeting in Vienna today, where the oil producers are expected to sign off on an output increase in July. All eyes are on the alliance's expectations for beyond July, and whether they think there's a need to keep hiking output as a crude oil glut built during the pandemic recedes. OPEC's Joint Technical Committee estimated on Monday that by the end of July stockpiles in developed nations will be below the average levels seen during 2015 to 2019 -- a key benchmark for the group. With Brent futures rising above $70 a barrel, the meeting is closely watched not just by oil traders, but also by inflation forecasters. 

Suspicion

French President Emmanuel Macron met Angela Merkel to discuss reports of U.S. spying on top European politicians. "If the information is correct, then that's unacceptable between allies, and even less so between European allies," he said afterwards. Merkel agreed with the statement, a response to Danish media reports from Sunday that cited a classified document saying that the Danish Defense Intelligence Service allowed the U.S. National Security Agency to use the country's internet cables for spying on Merkel and politicians in France, Sweden and Norway. The revelations come at an awkward time for Merkel, who sent a negotiating team to the U.S. this week, with an agenda that likely includes removing punitive tariffs imposed during Donald Trump's presidency.

Autostrade

The battle to control Italy's largest highway operator neared its end on Monday, almost three years after a deadly bridge collapse in the city of Genoa sparked rounds of acrimonious talks between the billionaire Benetton family and the government. At a meeting Monday, some 87% of investors at Atlantia SpA backed the sale of the company's Autostrade SpA highway unit to an investor group led by Italy's state-backed lender, an eleventh-hour victory for the Benettons, who control the infrastructure giant.

Coming Up…

European stocks are set to follow Asian equities higher. OPEC+ meets today to review oil production plans with Brent topping $70 a barrel. Elsewhere, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Reuters Global Responsible Business 2021 conference. It's a quiet day for earnings in Europe, with Burckhardt Compression and Aryzta among firms reporting. In the U.S., Zoom's earnings offers a chance to see how the pandemic-era favorite will fare in the era of vaccines, while Constellation Brands and Hewlett Packard also report. And in China, the surprise decision Monday to allow all couples to have a third child is being met with skepticism that it's too little too late to reverse a declining birthrate.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

After four months of gains, U.S. equity investors are growing increasingly nervous about the risk of a crash. The Cboe Skew Index, which tracks the cost of tail-risk equity protection, has jumped to the highest level since August 2018. The surge signals options traders are growing wary of wild swings as rising inflation boosts concerns that the Federal Reserve will start to pull back its monetary support sooner than expected. Recent volatility in the riskiest parts of the market -- from the likes of digital currencies to high-priced no-profit tech stocks -- has also reignited worries of a broader selloff. Other gauges of hedging activity are increasing, too. Short interest in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust -- a fund tracking the U.S. equity benchmark -- recently hit the highest since December, according to IHS Markit data. Investors are anxious.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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