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The bond bull market will never die, apparently

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Today's Agenda

The Bond Rally Will Continue Until Morale Improves

Parents, columnists and, let's say, newsletter writers have this special skill where they can say the same thing 8,000 times without wanting to flee into the desert forever. Mostly. So here we go again: The bond market is doing great. Too great? Probably. But it's starting to look as if it will continue to do great until humanity evolves into a different species, at which point bonds will probably be less of a priority.

People have been predicting the death of the bond bull market, and the terrifying surge of interest rates that will bring, for decades now. They have been wrong for decades. You may have heard some yellin' about an overheating economy and rates soaring. But the actual rates factory, the bond market, keeps producing low rates. And so companies just keep going back to it again and again and again, writes Lisa Abramowicz. And they keep getting rewarded again and again and again:

If you're lending money to these companies at a paltry 100 basis points or so above Treasury debt, then you should know your risks are high and your rewards are low. But we've already said that about 8,000 times now. And the kids still won't pick up their socks/stop buying bonds.

Bonus Markets Sci-Fi: But what do aliens think about the bond market? — Tyler Cowen

China Has a Population Problem

As if China didn't have enough going on, its long-awaited demographic decline is finally here. Its population should peak within the next few years, writes Clara Ferreira Marques. This means fewer mouths to feed, but also fewer workers to grow the economy. Those who remain will be increasingly pressured to support and care for retirees, a burden that will fall especially heavily on women and rural workers. China's demographic problem will worsen its inequality problem.

Bonus Cold War Reading: The West must stand united with Ukraine against Russian aggression. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

We Are the World: Pandemic Edition

The pandemic has at least made us appreciate the good things in life, such as family time, solid Wi-Fi and the ability to place preposterous Starbucks orders. Though evidence is spotty so far, it may also be reminding us we're all one human race; if millions die of Covid in India, then it's a problem for us back here in Wisconsin or wherever. History, contrary to form, offers reason to hope here, writes Stephen Mihm. In the frigid depths of the old cold war, for example, the U.S. and the Soviet Union worked together to inoculate kids against polio. Covid vaccine diplomacy hasn't been quite that striking yet, but it's getting better.

Boris Johnson's shockingly adept vaccine diplomacy is almost enough to make Brits forgive a list of scandals as long as that Starbucks order. Understandably, he's looking for his next trick, which Therese Raphael writes is a lights-out Covid treatment. Unfortunately, that will be much harder to accomplish than a vaccine.

Further Pandemic Abroad Reading: Australia's criminalization of citizens coming home from India is shameful political pandering. — Dan Moss 

Telltale Charts

If anybody's buying the stake in Saudi Aramco that MBS seems eager to sell, it will be an Asian buyer, writes Liam Denning. Just don't think there's any commercial justification for it.

Further Reading

The Senate confirmation process is bogging down President Joe Biden. — Max Stier

Donald Trump's tariffs helped protect America's supply chain. — Robert O'Brien 

Republicans indulge Trump's anti-democratic lies because it keeps the base riled up. — Jonathan Bernstein 

Under Armour placed quarterly earnings reports above long-term viability, in a fraud-y way. — Matt Levine

Lower capital gains taxes won't be enough to attract private equity to Hong Kong. Freedom and the rule of law matter, too. — Matthew Brooker 

Some corporate decisions only senior executives should make, not workers. — Dambisa Moyo 

If blocked from land routes into the U.S., desperate migrants may take to the dangerous sea. — Francis Wilkinson 

ICYMI

Pandora is dropping mined diamonds.

Biden would make billionaire heirs slightly less wealthy.

Bank bosses want workers back in the office. Workers differ. 

Kickers

A Chinese rocket core could fall uncontrolled to Earth soon. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

Area roller-coaster ride ends in a very long flight of stairs

Area man loses leg, wins shark's tooth. (h/t Scott Kominers for the past two kickers)

Belgian farmer accidentally moves the French border. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Notes: Please send shark's teeth and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

 

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