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Israel’s crisis is Biden’s problem to solve

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Today's Agenda

Israel's House Is Burning

Israelis have been living in something like a slow gas leak for a while now, feeling cozy even as the risks of a deadly conflagration grew. All it took was a spark. 

There's the increasingly deadly fighting with Hamas, which has killed 120 Palestinians and nine Israelis at last count. And then there's the fighting of neighbor against neighbor in Israel's streets, spurred by Arab and Jewish extremists. This is more alarming to the average Israeli than yet another skirmish with Hamas, writes Daniel Gordis. Until just days ago, Israeli Arabs were set to help pick a new government, and Israel had made peace with some key Arab states. It seemed to be the dawn of a new era. So much for that. Israel's leadership, long preoccupied by Benjamin Netanyahu's relentless clinging to power, let the dangers accumulate. Now civil war is a possibility.

Israeli and Palestinian leadership don't bear all the blame. The Trump administration and Arab allies basically abandoned the Palestinians, giving Iran an opening it's now trying to exploit. The Biden administration has been no better in its neglect, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. It has the power to convince Israel and Hamas, through Egypt and Qatar, to stand down. And once the immediate threat of violence has passed, President Joe Biden must rededicate the U.S. to finding lasting peace before we're all consumed in the flames.

Bonus Editorial: Colombian unrest is a reminder the U.S. must help Latin America or find more Venezuelas on its doorstep. 

Don't Be Like Colonial Pipeline

Us geniuses who know math real good understand that $5 million will always be less money than, say, $10 million. And $76,000 is way, way less money than $18 million. You can look it up. But at the same time, Tim O'Brien reminds us it's likely cheaper in the long run to spend $10 million to upgrade your cybersecurity systems than to pay $5 million in ransom to a cyber-pirate, as Colonial Pipeline just foolishly did. The Gallant to Colonial's Goofus is the city of Baltimore. When faced with a $76,000 ransom, Baltimore gave the hackers only an invitation to perform an obscene act on themselves and then spent $18 million cleaning up the mess and preventing future attacks. That took Omar Little levels of guts, but it was the right move. Paying ransoms only encourages more ransomware and more pirates.

Further Cyberpiracy Reading: 

Open Your Mind: Inflation Edition

Hey, have you heard inflation might be a problem? Ha ha, just kidding. Everybody is panicking about inflation, of course. As we've written, 2020's demand shortage has become 2021's supply shortage. Those of us geniuses who know economics real good know what that means. Prices rise, of course, but also everybody clings to their prior convictions. It's transitory, insists the Fed, which keeps the stimulus pumping. It's government spending's fault, insist conservatives, who call for less of that. Mohamed El-Erian suggests everybody needs to be more humble and flexible, starting with the Fed, which at some point must recalibrate policy to account for a supply shock. As for government spending, Biden's infrastructure plan will actually address our supply shortages, Mohamed notes, from clogged rivers and pipelines to a lack of qualified workers. 

Further Inflation Reading:

Telltale Charts

When inflation is high, it helps to invest like the late David Swensen, writes Shuli Ren, ditching the old 60/40 model and going for equity-like investments. 

Reopening helps Disney by getting people into theme parks, but hurts it by pulling them away from Disney+, writes Tara Lachapelle.

Further Reading

The CDC's new mask rules leave kids out. — Faye Flam

Elon Musk's Bitcoin shenanigans are just a chapter in a far more serious governance drama. — Liam Denning 

Private equity keeps copying Warren Buffett, putting more money into buy-and-hold-forever investments. — Anjani Trivedi 

The India variant is now loose in the U.K., but there's reason to hope it won't cause another runaway wave. — Therese Raphael 

The Bangladesh garment industry is heading for another disaster if brands don't help improve safety conditions. — Adam Minter 

What could Republican governors be thinking by cutting off unemployment benefits? — Jonathan Bernstein 

Thinking of retiring early? Be warned you may have less income than you expect. — Allison Schrager 

ICYMI

The CDC based its new mask guidance on real-world vaccine trial data.

Maintaining "Covid zero" turns out to be costly.

New York may not be dead forever, it turns out.

Kickers

How a milkshake vending machine saved a Welsh dairy. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Wild boars corner woman, take her groceries

Why we speak differently at home than at work.

Most men think they can beat a goose in a fight. 

Notes: Please send milkshakes and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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