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Belarus makes an unwelcome contribution to the new cold war

May 25, 2021

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Today's Agenda

New cold war weapon just dropped.

Photographer: PETRAS MALUKAS/AFP/Getty Images

Belarus Is the Wrong Kind of Disruptor

We're living in a wondrous age of rapid advancement, where medical science can whip up a bunch of near-perfect Covid vaccines on the fly and, uh, rich people can fire themselves into space? TikTok has a good algorithm? I'm not sure what else is really going on.

But anyway, sometimes the advancement is not so wondrous. Belarus this morning beta-tested some new repression tech that all the other authoritarian states will want: using fighter jets and false pretenses to ground a commercial airplane to arrest a regime critic. Many nations, including even some authoritarian-curious ones such as Poland, condemned Belarus. But Clara Ferreira Marques argues harsh action must quickly follow these words, to leave no doubt such behavior is beyond the pale. Otherwise Russia or China will be doing the plane-grounding next.    

Another unwelcome development of the new cold war will be the thawing of Arctic waters, Clara writes in a second column. Resource-rich and directly connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific, the top of the world could get crowded and messy in a hurry if we aren't careful.

The new cold war will still need old technology, though, such as scuba diving, parachuting and clandestinely blowing stuff up. The special forces that did all this during the first cold war got a little rusty during the global war on terror, writes Hal Brands. Now that it's (mostly) over, they can get back to doing what they have long done best. Some things never change.

Crypto Might Not Blow Up the World

We wrote a lot last week — making many new internet friends along the way — about how Bitcoin isn't really the future of money so much as a cult or conceptual art. Mohamed El-Erian points out another thing Bitcoin is not: a systemic risk. You can take "crypto" off your "what will set all of the money on fire next" list. But do note: With so many people gambling on crypto now, the chances are growing that somebody has to sell a bunch of stuff to cover huge crypto losses. In the fiatland of the hopelessly backward, this is known as "contagion." It's still a relevant concept.  

But what you really probably want to know is why you shouldn't quit your job and follow crypto around, maybe selling bootlegs of the time Dogecoin played "Dark Star" into "Wharf Rat" and then back into "Dark Star." People are starting to do this now: quit day jobs just to trade crypto or make NFTs full time. Shuli Ren warns this is not for people who don't like to do homework or take terrifying risks. In other words, go for it! (Just kidding. Don't.)

Covid Continues to Be Very Much Not Over

With people getting vaccinated, case counts falling, and pandemic restrictions dropping away left and right, it's easy in some parts of the U.S. to feel as if the Covid pandemic is already over. But, in fact, it's starting to run wild again all over Asia, writes Clara Ferreira Marques. The once-delayed Tokyo Olympics may yet be canceled as cases surge anew in Japan. It and many neighbors thought they'd beaten the virus last year but got complacent and have been slow to vaccinate. They're paying the price now. The whole world might pay later.

And it's still very possible the pandemic will rebound in the U.S. in the fall, writes Justin Fox. There's evidence Covid is seasonal like colds and flus. It ain't over until it's over, and it might never really be over. That at least means there's still time for the CDC to finally get its public-health messaging right, as Faye Flam notes. 

Telltale Charts

The 1918-19 pandemic kept coming in waves, too. But afterward the U.S. enjoyed a decade-long economic boom and runaway stock market. Some people think we're in for a repeat. But Nir Kaissar warns the stock market, at least, is in very different shape today. Back then, stocks were super-cheap. Now they're as pricey as they were in the dot-com bubble. Mathematically, that kinda makes big returns difficult.

Gen Z's habit of reusing clothes isn't nearly enough to overcome its habit of buying fast fashion and help the planet, writes Lara Williams.

Further Reading

The Fed needs to reassure people it's watching the data and will adjust policy accordingly. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

Persistent shortages mean car prices will only keep going up. — Anjani Trivedi 

Tribune's complicated structure left it needing many rich rescuers to keep it from Alden's hands. It didn't get them. — Brooke Sutherland 

American recycling is in better shape than ever despite China shutting its doors to scrap. — Adam Minter 

Relying on toll roads for infrastructure fosters inefficiency and inequality. — Noah Smith 

Think twice before you invest in a 529 plan. They may be expensive and limiting. — Teresa Ghilarducci 

Women are too often punished for being ambitious. — Stefanie O'Connell Rodriguez 

ICYMI

Ethereum says it can slash its energy use to almost nothing.

Anti-aging science helps dogs, possibly humans.

Australia's new menace: cannibal mice.

Programming Note

Bloomberg Opinion can't stop talking to interesting people on the internet. Today, for example, Sarah Green Carmichael talked to Jane Goodall on Twitter about what wild animals can teach human animals, including this lesson: "We have to stop thinking in terms of gaining power and wealth. We've got to start asking ourselves: What should we aim for in life? What is a good life? Is it getting more rich and getting more money?" Whether you answer "Yes, duh," or "No," it's worth a watch. 

Kickers

The sneakers you wear expose who you are. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

Radioactivity may be the key to life underground and on other planets.

Area drug dealer taken down by cheese photo.

Friday's optical-illusion kicker had the wrong link. Here's the right one.

This is no illusion: (h/t Scott Kominers)

Notes: Please send Hulk arms for chickens and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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