| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. A few points on the politics of the Democrats' infrastructure initiative: - President Joe Biden keeps trying to do popular things. Government investment in infrastructure does extremely well in public opinion polls — as do tax increases on rich people to (at least partially) pay for it. Given that polling, and the fact that political reporters tend to believe at least the spending side of it, it's no surprise that Biden is including lots of stuff as "infrastructure" that, well, let's just say that not every provision in the package is normally labeled that way. There's nothing wrong with that kind of political spin, especially on behalf of building support for initiatives that are popular on their own. The danger comes when the spinners believe their own spin — if, for example, something tossed in as infrastructure is actually unpopular, in which case the president's opponents will surely find it and attack it.
- The chances of passing this package over Republican opposition are enhanced by one striking factor: It appears that Democrats have agreed that one of the big lessons of 2009-2010 is that helping a Democratic president look like a success is more important to the re-election efforts of senators and representatives than siding with districts on individual bills or trying to differentiate themselves from the national party. In an age of partisan polarization, the president's approval rating matters more in midterm congressional elections than anything any individual member can do to please district voters. As long as Democrats believe that, they're going to try to stick together to pass things.
- The politics of infrastructure, as Paul Waldman points out in the Washington Post, enhances the prospect of compromise. Some policy questions rise and fall on matters of principle for supporters and opponents, but for the most part the disagreements are about spending amounts and divvying up projects. As Waldman notes, it's wise to pay attention to the demands of various factions within the Democratic Party, but also to remember that most can be resolved by shifting money around. That's especially true because the Democrats have abandoned the determination they showed during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama to fully pay for any new spending with taxes or other revenue. They're not quite as willing to ignore deficits as Republicans, but paying-as-they-go and finding symbolic spending targets no longer constrain the party or make negotiating deals difficult.
- My best guess is that Republicans will simply oppose the bill, full stop. If so, that will make it obvious that using the reconciliation procedure available to pass budget-related legislation by simple majority is the only realistic way to avoid defeat by filibuster. Most congressional Republicans tend to prefer policy losses to deals that win better (from their perspective) policy outcomes.
- The Biden administration did a remarkably good job in March of moving the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill through Congress with little major change, mainly by giving Democrats — individually, in factions and collectively — what they wanted to support in the first place. We'll see soon whether the same will apply to the infrastructure bill. So far, the administration has mostly done an excellent job of blocking and tackling — that is, getting the basics of running a White House and an executive branch correct. That's not going to be enough to succeed at everything, but it helps.
1. Vanessa Williamson and Jackson Gode at the Monkey Cage on bias and choosing schools in Washington, D.C. 2. Ariel Edwards-Levy on public opinion and getting the vaccine. 3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Michael Strain on the infrastructure plan. 4. Perry Bacon Jr. on West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. 5. David Byler on California. 6. And Kate Sosin on the origin of the International Transgender Day of Visibility. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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