Good afternoon from Los Angeles, wherever you may be. I just got back home after a few weeks in New York, where I spent a lot of time talking to music industry executives (in between talking to advertising executives).
The dominant narrative in music for the past few years has been how paid streaming saved the music business. Record sales, in decline for the better part of 15 years, have grown four years in a row. Here's the sales trajectory, courtesy of the IFPI:
![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iJ5sFvy5umb4/v0/-1x-1.png)
But this talk has obscured a geographic divide typical of self-centered Americans and Europeans. While streaming is popular everywhere, paid streaming is only popular in the US, Western Europe and parts of Latin America.
Though Asia, the Middle East and Africa are home to the majority of the world's population, they only account for about 10% of Spotify's customer base. Tencent Music Entertainment, the dominant music company in China, makes six times more money from what it calls social entertainment than from subscriptions.
ByteDance, China's most valuable startup, has set out to change that. The company, valued at $75 billion last year, is working on a paid streaming service focused on emerging markets — poorer countries where paid music services have yet to garner large audiences. It's already secured rights from some of the biggest music companies in India, for example.
ByteDance is hardly the only company trying this. Spotify has expanded across Latin America and South Asia. YouTube is already huge in India and Indonesia, though its paid music service is not. There are oodles of local players in Asia.
But ByteDance has one trick most of those other companies don't: TikTok, the video service that was the #1 social media app in India in the first quarter of 2019. People already use songs in their videos on TikTok, and the app is responsible for the #1 song in the world right now. ByteDance could include links in those videos to the paid service (if you want to listen to the full song).
YouTube thought this would be its advantage, but most people associate YouTube with free. It still got to
15 million customers. ByteDance shouldn't have this problem. It's new music service isn't supposed to be named after TikTok.
There isn't a world where 100 million people in emerging markets pay $9.99 a month for a Spotify-clone. But there is a world where 100 million people pay $1 a month. That would be better for artists and music groups than the current state. — Lucas Shaw
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