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Follow Us Get the newsletter Biden's plan faces a difficult passage through Congress, claims data due, and OPEC and its allies decide production levels.  Compromise  President Joe Biden's plan to rebuild U.S. infrastructure is going to have a difficult path through Congress as Republicans want no part of the corporate tax hikes that will pay for it, while progressive Democrats say it is not nearly big enough. The complexity of negotiations, and the possibility the package could be broken into several parts, means lawmakers don't see completion until September or October this year. One surprise winner from the plan which lauds its environmental credentials would be the Canadian oil-sands industry.  Claims While economists forecast that the initial jobless claims number published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time will continue to show improvement, the median estimate of 675,000 points to a labor market far from full recovery. Yesterday's ADP employment change number showed a pickup in hiring, particularly in the hospitality sector. Tomorrow's monthly jobs report is expected to show a surge in hiring, with 650,000 added to payrolls and unemployment falling to 6%.  Paid Post Was your experience in math and science classes more frustrating than fun? With Brilliant's interactive website and app, your natural curiosity will guide you, not the threat of a test! Develop and deepen the critical thinking skills you need to succeed by solving fun, interactive challenges! Brilliant Cartel  OPEC and its allies are holding talks today on whether to prolong the vast production curbs that have been in place to support the oil price. Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said that the market is "surrounded by uncertainties" ahead of the meeting which is widely expected to maintain output at current levels for another month. The U.S. is trying to put some political pressure on Saudi Arabia not to hold prices too high for too long, highlighting the importance of "affordable energy" in a call yesterday. Oil investors seem confident that the meeting will not lead to an increase in production, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May settlement trading almost 2% higher this morning.  Markets rise Global equity markets are getting the second quarter off to an optimistic, if somewhat subdued start. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.9% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.2% higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.5% by 5:50 a.m. in a broad-based advance. S&P 500 futures pointed to plenty of green at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.718% and gold was higher.  Coming up...  U.S. manufacturing PMI for March is at 9:45 a.m., with ISM manufacturing for the month at 10:00 a.m. Construction spending for February is also at 10:00 a.m. The Baker Hughes rig count is at 1:00 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks later. Autosales data for March is released today. Carmax Inc. reports earnings.  What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. Odd Lots: The ex-Jane Street trader who's building a multi-billion crypto empire.  China's commodities binge makes America's future more expensive.  Deutsche Bank dodged $4 billion Archegos hit with quick sale.  Dealmaking booms in hottest first-quarter start for two decades.  Euro area's crunch quarter for crisis recovery is starting now. Why the world's biggest bond market needs a revamp. New study sows doubt about the composition of 70 percent of our universe.  And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning Without a doubt the big story in markets in Q1 was the huge selloff in Treasuries, which had their worst quarter in years. At around 1.70% on the 10-year yield, the absolute level of long rates is still very low. But the size of the move was historic and at one point the whole situation had people questioning the Fed's strategy and whether Powell & Co. were being tested in some way, requiring a strategy pivot. But if you want to understand what happened to Treasuries, here's a simple chart to break it down. This is a chart of the quarterly change to the JPMorgan Forecast Revision Index, which basically measures how much economic forecasts have changed either upward or downward over the course of the quarter. As a JPM derivative strategist pointed out in a TV interview with us, the index just saw its single biggest upward move in history. In other words, the economic outlook improved at a historic pace in this quarter. Bloomberg Bloomberg Think back to Jan. 1. The virus situation was still getting worse. And at that point it looked like we were done with stimulus, because the Senate was probably going to be divided. And the vaccine rollout got off to a horrible start, with numerous headlines about how poorly it was all going. Fast-forward to the end of the quarter, and we got historic stimulus, the prospects of even more spending and our vaccine distribution is one of the fastest in the world. Naturally growth expectations have come way up over the last three months. And so basically what happened this quarter was things got dramatically brighter, and the market pulled forward its expectations for when the Fed would hike rates, which lead to the Treasury selloff. It quite straightforwardly represents -- as various Fed officials have said -- an unprecedented improvement in optimism about the economy. Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg.  Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022