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Staying near zero

The Fed signals near-zero rates at least through 2023. The WHO endorses AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine. Chinese wireless communications companies are being deemed a security risk to the U.S. Here's what people in markets are talking about today. 

Dovish Fed

The Federal Reserve continues to the project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, despite an upgraded U.S. economic outlook and the mounting inflation worries in financial markets. Officials see inflation settling back after the jump this year and Powell added there is no need to react to the rising U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed's decision, which came on a volatile day for investors, masked a growing number of officials who saw liftoff before then — though Powell stressed this remains a minority view. Yields have risen sharply in the past month as the economic outlook has improved amid accelerated vaccinations and $1.9 trillion in fresh fiscal aid.

Stocks to Gain

U.S. shares reacted positively to the Fed's dovish tone and most Asian stocks looked poised to climb Thursday, with futures up in Japan and Hong Kong, and little changed in Australia.. The S&P 500 rose to a fresh record and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at an all-time high. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries eased from earlier highs amid rising expectations of more aggressive rate hike projections. Longer-dated yields also fell, with the 10-year pulling back from 169% and the 30-year subsiding from its highest levels since 2019. The dollar weakened versus most major peers.

AstraZeneca Backed

The World Health Organization endorsed AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, saying the shot should continue to be administered as the benefits outweigh its risks. It's the second health authority to endorse the shot in as many days, after reports of blood clots in some people who received the shots prompted more than a dozen European Union countries to pause immunizations. The EU is picking a fight with the U.K. over vaccine supplies, saying it will consider blocking supplies to countries that aren't reciprocating or that already have high vaccination rates. Meanwhile Australia and New Zealand are close to a deal over travel corridor, and Taiwan will open its borders to tourists from Palau.

Security Risk

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission moved toward barring more Chinese wireless carriers, calling China Unicom and ComNet a security risk controlled by the Beijing government. The move continues a security crackdown that earlier touched Chinese gear makers Huawei and ZTE. In 2019, the FCC barred China Mobile from the U.S. market over national security concerns. You can read more about Xi Jinping's plan for a Chinese tech revolution here. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has informed some of Huawei's suppliers of stricter conditions on previously approved export licenses and the Huawei-centric diplomatic feud between Canada and China continues, with two Canadians facing Chinese court hearings in the coming days.

Self-Reliant India

India's ambitions to boost its manufacturing clout may not be entirely new, but their latest incarnation —  Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Self-Reliant India" — is showing early signs of success. Amazon.com is planning a manufacturing line in Chennai to produce Fire TV devices and Apple said this month it will begin producing the iPhone 12 in India for local customers. Modi is courting other big foreign names like Tesla and the latest budget offers $28 billion in cash incentives to boost manufacturing, which Credit Suisse sees adding 1.7% to gross domestic product by 2027. "The relocating to India trend has already started to gain momentum," says Tanvee Gupta Jain, a Mumbai-based economist at UBS Securities. "This is a significant turn in India's manufacturing policy." Read more here

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

At what point do production bottlenecks turn into a very big deal? In the case of semiconductors — necessary components for everything from smartphones to cars — that moment arguably came on Wednesday. At what is usually a low-key annual shareholders' meeting, Samsung warned of a "serious" imbalance in the semiconductor industry. We've gotten pretty used to car manufacturers complaining about the global chips shortage. These companies are often last in line for chips (behind "big" clients like smartphone makers) and they also made a serious miscalculation in their estimates of supply and demand last year, so it makes sense they've been hit first. But Samsung actually makes chips. It designs and manufactures them for itself as well as third-party customers. The fact that the semiconductor shortage is now hitting an actual chip manufacturer suggests tightness in the market might be entering a new phase.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

 

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