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New challenges

One year after the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic, the coronavirus is mercifully starting to fade in parts of the world. As a result, small shoots of economic recovery are showing.

That's a plus for many countries. But for some it's a bit more mixed, because the pick up in demand is set to increase the prices they pay for metals, energy and crops. Oil and copper are already seeing big jumps.

It's potentially good news for Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has staked his leadership on a modernization of the economy but needs oil money to fund it, especially as his relationship with the West becomes more troubled.

It could help another big energy producer, Russia, where President Vladimir Putin is battling unrest over the jailing of an opposition leader and disquiet over the economy as inequality widens.

But, as Paul Wallace notes, there are two sides to any trade.

While Putin benefits on oil, he must contend with a spike too in food prices. Russia has moved recently to impose tariffs and quotas to curb wheat sales abroad and push prices down at home.

For other big producers it's not an automatic plus, either, especially as trade has become so politicized in recent years.

With strategic tensions high, Australia's biggest customer may not be so pliant as in past booms. China can suddenly hold up or bar cargo, or complain of contaminated food or infected live animal shipments.

We've seen it do the same with U.S. agriculture purchases, turning the tap on and off to suit its political needs. So while commodities are a harbinger of global demand creeping back, they throw up challenges all the same. — Rosalind Mathieson

A worker opens a furnace at the KGHM Polska Miedz copper smelting plant in Glogow, Poland, on Tuesday.

Photographer: Bartek Sadowski/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Victory lap | Now that President Joe Biden has Congressional approval for his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, the White House plans a media blitz with the message that he and the Democrats prevented millions from enduring poverty and illness. After a signing ceremony today, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will fan out across America to highlight the benefits of the legislation.

  • Republicans are invoking the threat of inflation to attack Biden's stimulus package.
  • Biden's pick for Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, Nellie Liang, is starting the task of strengthening Wall Street oversight even before she's formally nominated.

Going big | In doubling the U.S. order of Johnson & Johnson's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine, Biden has almost enough shots to inoculate every American adult twice. But that also risks fueling concerns about a global vaccine gap between have and have-not nations. "We're going to start off making sure Americans are taken care of, first, but we're then going to try to help the rest of the world," he said.

  • Israel and the United Arab Emirates, with the world's fastest inoculation programs, are discussing a quarantine-free travel corridor for those who are fully vaccinated.

Rubber stamp | Chinese lawmakers approved an overhaul of how Hong Kong chooses its leaders as Beijing curbs political opposition in the Asian financial hub. The National People's Congress passed a proposal to change the size and composition of the body that picks the city's chief executive, and have it nominate local legislators.

  • China is prioritizing stable economic growth and job creation as its main goals for 2021, seeking sustainable expansion versus large fluctuations, Premier Li Keqiang said at the conclusion of the NPC meeting.
  • The U.S. and China laid out differing expectations for a meeting in Alaska next week between Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and their Chinese counterparts, showing the domestic pressure on each side to avoid looking weak.

Green wave | Ten years ago, in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear power plant meltdown in Japan, the Greens pulled off an electoral upset to take the home state of Porsche in Germany's affluent southwest from Angela Merkel's CDU party. Now, as Birgit Jennen and Arne Delfs report, they could be about to beat out the CDU again in a state vote on Sunday that has potential implications for Germany's federal election in September.

Dreams wither | Facebook and Google are spending billions trying to get more people online in Africa. But as Loni Prinsloo and Michael Cohen report, the internet giants face a backlash from governments worried about social-media platforms being used to undermine their grip on power.

Demonstrators in the Senegalese capital Dakar on March 5 after the arrest of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko.

Photographer: Seyllou/AFP/Getty Images

What to Watch

  • Ivory Coast Prime Minister Hamed Bakayoko died yesterday of cancer, less than a year after being appointed following the death of his predecessor.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned trip to the UAE has been delayed after Jordan failed to authorize a flight path, Israeli media reported.
  • Italy's Matteo Salvini hinted at an early end to Mario Draghi's term and indicated the prime minister could be a candidate for head of state when that job becomes available early next year.
  • Mexico's lower house voted yesterday to liberalize marijuana laws in a bid to create the world's biggest legal market and cut drug cartel profits.

And finally ...Abandoned ghost towns stand testimony to the Fukushima disaster, still largely empty even as the government pours billions into decontamination and rebuilding. In one, Namie, only about 1,600 of 21,000 people have returned. "The people who really want to come back have come back," says one resident. Parts of Fukushima are still off limits and its future is clouded by the decades it may take to decommission the nuclear plant that was hit by an earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

Bags of radioactive waste in Futaba, Fukushima, on March 7.

Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg

 

 

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