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We aren’t nearly ready for the next pandemic

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Today's Agenda

Better Pandemic Governance Is Possible

There comes a point in adulthood when you realize your parents are as bad at parenting and life as you are, and it's not comforting. This happened on a global scale last year when millions of people realized the world's grownups were way more clueless about handling a pandemic than they expected.

In fact, most of the countries supposedly at the top of their pandemic game have struggled the most with the pandemic, as this Axios chart makes painfully clear:

The bad news is that the coronavirus wreaking havoc on the planet is not the last infectious disease humanity will face. The good news is that we now have a clear, realistic understanding of just how to shore up the world's defenses, write World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Bloomberg LP founder Mike Bloomberg. We need more and better studies of the diseases affecting humans and animals; more vaccine research; more and better data; more and better global coordination; and investment in local health so that populations are less vulnerable to diseases. It sounds like a lot, and it is, but at least we know what must be done.

To their credit, the U.S. and U.K., which stand out in a bad way in the chart above, appear to have gotten a decent handle on vaccinations. They're no Israel, but still. Europe, on the other hand, has fumbled every step of the pandemic response, notes Ferdinando Giugliano. It didn't procure enough vaccine early and has reacted to that mistake with the calm demeanor of Yosemite Sam with a firecracker in his pants. It's not a good look for a union already on shaky ground.

Vaccinations should end our current nightmare, even if variants make them less effective. Inoculations still keep people from getting very sick and dying, Justin Fox writes, which will help the world return to normal life, whatever that is. It should be one with no illusions about the work we must do to protect ourselves.

Further Vaccine Reading: The AstraZeneca vaccine seems helpful in the elderly, though we still need more data. — Sam Fazeli 

Is the System OK?

We may also be naive about the financial system's crisis-proofing. Post-2008 reforms did make banks stronger, and the blissful rallies global markets have enjoyed over the past year suggest all is well. But we can't ignore how much this happy ending relied on massive, ongoing support from the Federal Reserve, writes Bill Dudley. Remember how the bond market went bonkers for a few days back in March? There are still obvious flaws in the system for regulators to address

And some of the Fed's response could be planting the seeds of future crises by forcing investors into ever-riskier investments. The GameStop foolishness may not be a systemic threat, but it is a sign there's too much easy money sloshing around, writes Jared Dillian. He argues central bankers should start to exit as soon as humanly possible or risk creating real monsters. 

Mind the Liquidity Trap

The raucous party in financial markets can also trick you into thinking everything is right with the economy. In fact, though already-passed stimulus might help the U.S. recover lost growth sometime this year, it's still in a very deep hole of lost potential, warns Karl Smith. The economy needs a lot more stimulus — $1.9 trillion worth, say — to avoid sinking back into the "liquidity trap" that gripped it the last time we made the mistake of giving it too little gas, just a decade ago.

Trump's Shaky Impeachment Defenses

We're just a week away from the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump. His many Republican defenders will argue it's unconstitutional to impeach a president after he's gone. It's a dubious argument, but it's pretty much the best one they've got. Trump claims his riling up the murderous mob was simply free speech, but Jonathan Bernstein notes free speech rules don't apply when you're doing your job. For example, I'm free to use my personal Facebook page to promote my belief that we live in a simulation run by monkeys on LSD, but I should expect to be fired if I used this newsletter to do the same.

Trump's other defense is even weirder, calling the impeachment a "bill of attainder," which Noah Feldman explains is an obscure legal term for a law that unfairly targets a person or group. This isn't that thing, Noah writes. It's an impeachment, and the founders knew the difference. Or so the acid monkeys would have us believe.

Telltale Charts

Jeff Bezos has taken Amazon to unimaginable heights, writes Tae Kim. Fittingly, its future will be shaped by the cloud.  

Further Reading

Myanmar's civilian government isn't ideal, but a military coup is even worse. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

Vladimir Putin may silence Alexey Navalny in prison, but Navalny's wife could be harder to control. — Leonid Bershidsky 

If anybody is equipped to govern the mess that is Italy, it's Mario Draghi. — Ferdinando Giugliano 

Biden talks tough about China, but he'll have to back up that talk with military power. — Hal Brands 

A dire fire-hazard problem is making the U.K.'s housing problem even worse. — Therese Raphael 

If you want to build a career, you're better off living in a cheap-for-now New York than, say, Austin. — Conor Sen 

ICYMI

President Joe Biden said backing down on stimulus checks would break a promise.

Why Donald Trump's banker left Deutsche Bank.

The U.S. dropped out of the world's top 10 most innovative countries.

Kominers's Conundrums Hint

If you're still puzzling through our ticker symbol/stonk Conundrum, remember there are many different ways ticker symbols could encode information: There are the companies they represent, of course, but also their letters — and even relationships across the symbols!

If you're having trouble translating the second message in particular, maybe the problem is these aren't the companies' regular ticker symbols? As we noted, they somehow seem foreign. Perhaps the message got garbled in receipt.

And if you're stuck on the bonus puzzle, it might help to write out all the bold symbols together in order. — Scott Duke Kominers

Kickers

Texas sent an Amber Alert for a Chucky doll. (h/t Mike Smedley

Tasmanian island to be powered by "blowhole" energy.

Neither aliens nor slaves built Egypt's pyramids.

Why losing bonds sports fans.

Note: Please send energy and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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