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Today's Agenda

An Exciting Alternative to Net Present Value

Elon Musk. Gamestop. Dogecoin. Bitcoin. Tesla. Seriously, why do we even need verbs anymore?

Tesla Inc.'s disclosure in its annual report that it had bought $1.5 billion of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash" was just the latest in a series of charming Musk-related market happenings over the past few weeks, plus Bitcoin has been earning higher returns than cash lately. "Crossing the memes" in this way felt portentous to Liam Denning, though: "It's as if the earth has shifted a billionth of a degree on its axis or we are approaching some singularity in the capital markets with Lovecraftian overtones."

Meanwhile, Matt Levine suggests that the change has already come, "and the way finance works now is that things are valuable not based on their cash flows but on their proximity to Elon Musk." The Tesla-Bitcoin news came not long after a Musk tweet about joke-cryptocurrency Dogecoin sent its value soaring (here's more on that from Lionel Laurent), and another that simply read "GameStonk!!" seemed to do the same for Gamestop Inc.'s share price (although its subsequent collapse did start soon after). Levine too thinks this is weird and unsettling, that we are in the early stages of a rewiring of our social relationships by the internet and social media that we cannot fathom the end of. But at least we have Elon Musk to guide us! Oh, wait …

The Case for a Slow Impeachment Trial

Former President Donald Trump's Senate impeachment trial is scheduled to start Tuesday afternoon, and Trump biographer Tim O'Brien thinks it would be a big mistake for his Democratic accusers to rush through it for fear of otherwise derailing President Joe Biden's legislative agenda. Sure, they probably won't be able to get the 67 votes needed to convict him and ban him from holding public office again. But the trial provides a unique opportunity to establish for the historical record what exactly Trump did to try to derail the democratic process.

It also provides an opportunity for Trump's lawyers to come up with some innovative arguments for why he shouldn't be convicted, but after reading their trial brief law professor Noah Feldman is extremely unimpressed. They argue, for example, that punishing the president would violate his First Amendment right to free speech, but Noah notes that a "robust commitment to free speech doesn't require protecting from impeachment a president who uses words in an attempt to destroy the democratic process."

On a somewhat related note, Stephen Carter, another of Bloomberg Opinion's law professors, warns that overuse of the term "insurrection" to describe civil disturbances could deliver insurers an undeserved windfall.

An Overdue Antitrust Overhaul is Coming

The boom in megamergers over the past decade is an indication of the failure of U.S. antitrust regulation, writes Tara Lachapelle, but change may be on the way. Amy Klobuchar, new chair of the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Protection, is introducing new legislation that would make blocking mergers much easier by shifting the burden of proof from regulators to companies, and even bolder proposals are being discussed in the House. The focus seems to be chiefly on tech giants that were already under fire from Republicans, meaning this issue probably won't go away anytime soon.

Telltale Charts

Who got the biggest tax cuts (as a percentage of income) from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017? According to 2018 tax data recently released by the Internal Revenue Service, it's those salt-of-the-earth folks making between $200,000 and $1 million a year, reports Justin Fox, aka me. There are, however, apparently a lot of people working in the financial services industry in Greater New York who make that kind of money and still saw a tax increase because the 2017 tax law so sharply curtailed their deduction for state and local taxes. Many of them have been nice enough to email and even call me today to make sure I was aware of this!

Yes it seems like an historic moment, with the yield on the 30-year Treasury topping 2% for the first time since, um, a year ago. But the 30-year is a sideshow, argues Brian Chappatta, with the real action happening in shorter-term debt securities that as yet show little indication of a coming resurgence in interest rates.

Further Reading

Save that stimulus check (if you can)! — Teresa Ghilarducci

Today's Republican Party could use more George Shultzes. — Jonathan Bernstein

Joe Biden should focus less on stimulus and more on investment. — Tyler Cowen

Distressed-company investing in China isn't for spreadsheet jockeys. — Shuli Ren

Clubhouse's wonderful if probably fleeting China moment. — Tim Culpan

Central banking's flawed bird analogies aren't working. — Daniel Moss

Beware of "original antigenic sin" in the Covid-19 fight. — Sam Fazeli

ICYMI

Twelve House committees are working to cobble together the Covid-relief bill.

Average U.S. junk bond yields drop below 4% for first time ever.

Big U.S. banks are lending less and less.

Kickers

The red panda GIF you need and deserve.

A laptop with seven screens.

Somebody hacked a water-treatment plant in Florida.

Note: Please send memes and complaints (especially about the late arrival of today's newsletter, which was due entirely to author error) to justinfox@bloomberg.net. Mark Gongloff will be back tomorrow.

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