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Reader Mailbag: Apple’s growing studio, Netflix’s stockpile of s

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One of the beauties of writing about Hollywood is that everyone has an opinion about your work. You too watch movies and listen to music, and so you also know what would make a good TV show, or why a particular song is at the top of the charts.

I mean this sincerely. I am not a critic, so readers don't attack me in the same way they would someone who doesn't like their favorite movie. I do not work in the entertainment industry, and yet I am allowed to opine on its inner workings as though I know precisely what it takes to make a hit show. (I don't.) Best of all, I like hearing what other people have to say because it sometimes stimulates an idea, or makes me realize something I did not consider.

Early in the pandemic, I answered a bunch of questions about the state of the business from readers and followers on social media. Now that we are almost a year in – with many months to go, at a minimum – I thought I'd try again. I may do this once a quarter this year. But that depends on you coming back with good questions. Armchair experts, bring it on!

If you had to stick a percentage on it - how close to being back to normal are TV/movie productions? When are they expecting to be back to 100%? -- Kasey Moore, writer at What's on Netflix

This depends a lot on geography. Los Angeles has opened up and shut down and opened up again. The number of new applications for filming permits in LA dropped in December as cases spiked.

Filming has resumed in most of the major domestic production hubs, including Atlanta and New York. Some international territories, like South Korea and New Zealand, resumed work almost right away. Others, like London, have stopped and started.

I spoke to a few people this week who estimated production is somewhere between 60% and 80% of normal. That makes sense since we saw a dip in the overall number of shows released last year, but not a steep one.

Is there still a bunch of stuff left in our strategic national streaming content reserve, or are the big platforms starting to run out? Or has production resumed enough to fill out the schedules? -- Casey Newton, author of the Platformer newsletter

People love to talk about how they've run out of things to watch. Someone explain this to me. There are so many new programs released every year – some 500 last year in scripted TV alone – that you can't watch them all in one year. I am still catching up on shows I wanted to watch in 2015.

The real challenge is that people don't know how to find new shows. Discovery is a huge problem in TV right now. Music has it mostly figured out. Spotify feeds you playlists catered to you. But does anyone trust the Netflix recommendations as much as they do those on Spotify?

As for Casey's actual question, we have plenty of new shows coming because of the aforementioned return to production. Just Friday, FX announced release dates for new seasons of "Cake," "Mayans M.C.," "Breeders" and a new show called "Hysterical." There won't be as many new shows, but that's why streaming services are splurging on movies at Sundance, buying up international shows and funding unprecedented levels of animation.

Why has no one created a new, actually creative sitcom in years? Is this format dead? Was Dan Harmon's Community the last one? -- Adam Singer, chief marketing officer at Think3

Someone didn't watch "Ted Lasso"! Hollywood studios want more comedy. They want shows that are endlessly rewatchable and allow you to turn off your brain for a moment. There is a dearth of those because of the push to make dark dramas that win awards and comedies with a message. But seriously, watch "Ted Lasso."

Is Apple TV+ becoming a studio, or on its way there? -- Gidon Feen, director of special projects at Securing America's Future Energy

Most of its biggest shows are produced by outside studios, and its biggest movie from last year, "Greyhound," was acquired after it was completed. But Apple is ramping up more quickly than people realize. It will likely spend at least $2 billion or $3 billion on original programming this year. It's spending more on movies and kids' shows. But it's not a proper studio yet.

Has YouTube killed the movie star? My teenage kids always reference popular YouTubers and TikTokers. I never hear them talk about big names in Hollywood - and they don't recognize big names when I mention them. I wonder if Hollywood will lose status as that generation grows older? -- Todd Anderson, editor/partner at AV Nirvana

Is Hollywood becoming a feature in a streaming world? Streaming isn't standalone for everyone (Amazon Prime, HBO Max). Does the fact its not the "main event" for many streaming operators mean Hollywood / content has become a "feature" instead of the main event? – Andrew Jude Rajanathan, Mindshare Worldwide

Both of these questions hint at the idea that Hollywood is dying, and both suggest binary thinking. Either Hollywood stars are big, or TikTokers are big. Either Hollywood is just a feature tech companies use to sell you toothpaste, or it's not.

Social media stars and influencers have earned a seat at the table with the biggest celebrities on the planet. Most kids follow more YouTubers than they do movie stars. But that doesn't mean movie stars or pop stars or TV stars are going away. Just look at the popularity of Olivia Rodrigo, who got famous on a Disney show, or Noah Centineo, who became famous in a Netflix movie.

There is also a clear divide in entertainment right now between companies that create entertainment for the sake of entertainment, and companies that make entertainment to sell you something else.

Disney and Netflix make all their money from movies and TV shows, and the ancillary businesses they inspire. Apple and Amazon are tech companies that use entertainment to get you to shop or buy a phone. Comcast and AT&T are in between. They acquired pure entertainment companies and continue to operate them as standalone divisions.

Is one better than the other? Disney and Netflix have the biggest streaming services, so you could argue entertainment isn't just a feature. But Apple and Amazon seem to be in Hollywood for the long haul, and it's never going to be more than a feature to them. 

In sum, the answer is neither, both and all! 

After all the backlash on James Corden in "The Prom," why was he nominated for the Golden Globe? -- Heike Young, director of content strategy at Salesforce

Why not end with a fun one? The Golden Globes nominees are selected by a few dozen members of the press from international news outlets, and they have the taste you'd expect from a bunch of foreign journalists. They love celebrities (hence the love for Lily Collins and "Emily in Paris" and for Corden). They love British shows, and "The Crown" in particular.

They like to be courted (who doesn't?), and Netflix excels here. The streaming service mounts the most aggressive awards campaigns of any company. -- Lucas Shaw

The best of Screentime (and other stuff)

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Jeff Passan profiles Robinson, a once-promising prospect who attempted to take his own life and is now trying to break back into baseball with just one functioning eye.
How Rich Paul, Fueled by LeBron, Built a Sports Empire
In his new video series Portrait, Jason Kelly profiles the agent of Lebron James and Anthony Davis.
The Test Kitchen, Chapter 1
Reply All explores the clubby, white world of magazine publishing, and how Bon Appetit went from media darling to cautionary tale.
The Many Lives of Steven Yeun
Jay Caspian Kang!

Should We Worry About Sports Ratings?

That's the headline of a new note by analyst Michael Nathanson. The note is worth reading in full, but I wanted to give the cliff notes here as a follow-up to our recent coverage on sports TV ratings.

Sports viewership plummeted over the last two years, falling 30% on cable and 18% on broadcast. It is easy to dismiss this as an aberration. Events happened at unusual times due to the pandemic. People were distracted by the election.

And yet, we may have reached an inflection point where the long-term decline of overall TV viewership has finally caught up with sports. Despite a pandemic that stranded everyone in the U.S. at home, the number of people using TV (what's called the PUT level) fell to all-time lows.

The only people watching more TV are older viewers. In 2015, people over the age of 50 accounted for about 45% of cable viewership, a minority. Now, people over 50 account for 65%. Here's the chart:

Broadcast networks are reaching a smaller and smaller chunk of society, and the amount of time people spent watching ESPN fell 26% last year, the steepest of any major cable network. We'll know if this trends continues in the next couple years. It probably won't help matters that streaming services are now offering sports.

One sliver of good news: Six cable networks grew their audience last year, and they all fit into two categories,  News (CNN, MSNBC, Fox) and lifestyle/home improvement (HGTV, Food Network, TLC).

Why aren't you paying for Crunchyroll?

Crunchyroll, a streaming service devoted to anime, eclipsed 4 million subscribers. Crunchyroll is the counterpoint to the point we made last week about the cloudy future for niche streaming services. It has not only offered a deep reserve of content that a lot of people want to watch, but it's created a community around it.

Fans of anime can find shows to watch on Netflix, but no diehard is content with that. And as any anime fan will tell you, there are a lot of anime fans.

Spotify tests investors' patience

Shares in Spotify plunged in the past week after the company issued a tepid forecast for the year ahead. The Swedish streaming giant blamed the unpredictability of the pandemic.

That seems like a strange explanation after it posted record growth in 2020, but let's not dwell on that. Here's the thing to keep in mind with Spotify. It has sold shareholders on its prospects as the audio platform of the future. It started with music, and is now branching out into podcasts and audiobooks.

It needs investors to believe in podcasts because music streaming is an unprofitable business. But turning podcasting into a big business is going to take years, not months. And so Spotify is stuck in a cycle where its stock surges when it makes big announcements about podcasts -- the future! --  and then slips when it reports financial results that remind investors podcasting is still not a big business.

Fortunately for Spotify, its stock rose 110% last year, so dropping 10% in a week is no big deal.

Morgan Wallen gets dropped, TJ Osborne comes out

Radio stations, streaming services and talent agencies all distanced themselves from Morgan Wallen after the country star used a racial slur in a video leaked on the internet. Wallen has been the best-selling artist of the year in the U.S. so far. In the same week, T.J. Osborne became the first country star in his prime to come out as gay.

"One of these artists represents where country music is going. I wish I knew which one," writes Dave Holmes.

Deals, deals, deals

  • Sony is spending $430 million to buy two businesses from Kobalt, one that provides tools for distributing music on the internet and another that handles what's called neighboring rights. Tim Ingham has a great rundown.
  • Some guy named Jeff Bezos vacated his job as CEO of Amazon, and will now be executive chairman. What does this mean for Amazon Studios, his company's Hollywood division? It's too soon to know. If you do know, please call me.
  • YouTube ad sales grew 46% in the final quarter of 2020, bringing its total ad sales in 2020 to $19.78 billion. That doesn't account for subscription revenues, which are also in the billions.
  • Hollywood talent agency WME  reached a new deal with the screenwriters' union, allowing it to represent screenwriters for the first time in nearly two years. As part of the deal, WME's owner will have to divest all or most of its in-house studio.
  • Friday news dump! Fox fired Lou Dobbs, while the New York Times parted ways with health reporter Donald McNeil, who was accused of using a racial slur, and podcast producer Andy Mills, who oversaw the troubled show "Caliphate."

Weekly Playlist

There was another great album that came out last week (aka the week of Arlo Parks). It comes from Madlib, the Southern California DJ known for his work with MF Doom and J Dilla. Start with "Road of the Lonely Ones."

 

 

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