| Netflix walked so Disney could run. Disney's streaming service has signed up 95 million customers in the last 14 months, a blistering pace with no real precedent. It took Netflix about nine years to eclipse 95 million customers for its streaming service. Of course, Netflix had to establish the market for online streaming in the first place, training a generation of viewers to watch an on-demand service over the internet instead of a live feed from a cable box. But the market is now mainstream, and Disney has established itself as the first traditional entertainment company – aka a company with lots of cable networks – to nail the transition to streaming. Unlike so many of its peers, the company is not built around cable. It is built around a studio that creates characters for the destination du jour, be it movie theaters, TV networks, theme parks or toy stores. Disney's rapid growth raises a couple of questions, starting with: How long will it take for Disney to catch Netflix? This depends on how you look at it. Netflix has grown at record pace even with Disney+ as the competition, and will remain the top dog for the foreseeable future. But Disney has had all this success with only a couple of new shows. It's going to ramp up its selection of new series and movies in no time, and no company's movies have a stronger following abroad than Disney. If Disney can sustain anything close to its current momentum, watch out.  Notably missing from this chart: Amazon and Apple. Neither company reports subscribers for their streaming services. Revenue is another story. If you want to look at the competition in online video based on revenue, Disney has a much steeper hill to climb. There is a clear divide between the top two players: Netflix and YouTube, and Disney. 2020 Streaming revenue - Netflix: $25 billion.
- YouTube: $19.8 billion (excluding subscriptions).
- Disney: $10B-$11B.
- Viacom: $2B-$3B.
Getting precise numbers for Disney and Viacom is tough due to the way they report, but it's better than the others. AT&T Inc. and Comcast Corp. have yet to break out financial data for HBO Max or Peacock. The larger chasm between Netflix and Disney can be explained by a single statistic: ARPU (average revenue per user). The average Disney+ customer pays about $4, while the average Netflix customer pays closer to $11. Disney's ARPU is shrinking as it expands around the world. It is signing up customers in India by charging almost nothing ($5 to $20 a year). Netflix is charging more than triple that. Time will tell which is a better strategy.
Despite only operating in the U.S., Hulu is still a larger business than Disney+ in terms of revenue because it costs three times as much. And Hulu's live TV service is almost as big as Disney+ with just four million subscribers. Disney's success also sets a very high bar for all of its peers, and three in particular: ViacomCBS (owner of Paramount+), NBCUniversal (owner of Peacock) and WarnerMedia (owner of HBO Max). ViacomCBS, NBCUniversal and WarnerMedia now need to prove they too can replicate Disney's success in the transition from cable to streaming. HBO Max and Peacock both stumbled out of the gate, and are now searching for their footing. ViacomCBS is about to take the wraps off of Paramount + (neé CBS All Access), and we previewed their plans here. Thus far, none of them have committed to streaming in the same way that Disney did. They are still licensing their biggest hits to other companies. They are still producing original shows for other companies. And they are still reluctant to spend huge sums of money on streaming. That has started to change, in particular at HBO Max. Jessica Toonkel and Tom Dotan have a really good story on the debate raging inside NBCU right now, where the executives know they need to do more with Peacock but aren't sure how. The same could be said of ViacomCBS, which, at about $30 billion, is a good deal smaller than many of its direct competitors. That's a big reason that company has continued to sell projects, like "Coming 2 America," to rival services. It needs the money to fund its streaming business. So what does success look like if you are these three companies? Is 20 million customers a good result at the end of this year? What about 30 million? These companies may have different answers. But they can all agree on one fact: coming in third (or fourth) is good enough. -- Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime (and other stuff) | 
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