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Too close for comfort

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Tensions in the disputed South China Sea are cyclical — they pick up, then ease, then pick up again.

So it's easy to dismiss them as a perennial of sorts in the broader U.S.-China tussle for global influence.

U.S. navy ships and fighter jets come into close proximity quite regularly with patrols from China, as Beijing builds military bases on reclaimed reefs. There's also public arguing between China and other claimants over one of the world's most important trade arteries, with huge fishing grounds and potentially vast untapped energy resources.

China and the U.S. have established rules for when their militaries unexpectedly meet. That system of communication tends to work pretty well, even when a Chinese pilot decides to show off some fancy flying very close to an American counterpart.

But with the U.S. increasing what are called freedom of navigation operations — something that is likely to continue under the presidency of Joe Biden — and China's increased use of heavily armed coast guard and fishing vessels in lieu of grey-hulled navy ships, the prospect of a mishap is rising.

Karen Leigh, Peter Martin and Adrian Leung lay out the near misses that have already happened in the area.

With China pushing ever harder on its territorial claims, challenging and chasing away the planes and ships of other nations, the stakes for both Beijing and Washington will only increase. — Rosalind Mathieson

Tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

Macron infected | French President Emmanuel Macron has become the latest leader to test positive for Covid-19. His office said he's showing mild symptoms and will isolate for seven days while continuing to work. The news coincides with a record 3,835 fatalities in the U.S. and the biggest-ever jump in infections in Germany, as the race to roll out vaccines hits snags. Besides some delivery delays, the first known allergic reaction to the Pfizer-BioNTech shot in the U.S. occurred in Alaska, following similar reports in the U.K.

  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will publicly receive the vaccine tomorrow, and Biden is expected to be inoculated as soon as next week, amid concern that many Americans may refuse the injection.

  • President Vladimir Putin said at his annual marathon press conference today that he'd take Russia's vaccine when it's available for his age group.

Georgia runoffs | U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler's campaign was designed to broaden the Republican Party's appeal to voters in Georgia's increasingly Democratic suburbs. Instead the race has seen each side harden its core support base. And the stakes are high: Loeffler's contest and a second Jan. 5 runoff will decide control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January. Democrats need to win both seats to gain a majority.

  • Click here for more on how Biden's cabinet picks are starting to work through the confirmation process in the Republican-controlled Senate.

End of an era | Facebook and Twitter have reversed changes to their content policies that were implemented to stem the viral spread of misinformation about the U.S. presidential election, saying the temporary measures are no longer needed. Twitter had made it harder to retweet others' posts, while Facebook boosted news sources it considered authoritative.

Losing battle | President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's authority is waning as reforms such as anti-graft laws won since the 2014 ouster of Ukraine's Kremlin-backed leader are unraveled. The backsliding throws into question the future of a nation that's repeatedly been the object of a tug of war between the west and Russia — and its relationship with the European Union.

Zelenskiy holds up a mace, the Ukrainian symbol of power, during his inauguration ceremony in Kiev on May 20, 2019.

Photographer: Andrii Nesterenko/Parliament Press Service via AP

Back to business | With Covid-19 vaccinations heralding a return to normalcy, the next year should see courtrooms around the world resuming operations. Cases to watch involving former world leaders include France's Nicolas Sarkozy, Malaysia's Najib Razak and South Africa's Jacob Zuma. One of the most tantalizing questions will be whether a certain former U.S. president could find himself facing trial as well.

What to Watch

  • Congressional leaders and their staff could today unveil details of a nearly $900 billion virus relief plan as they work toward passage by tomorrow.

  • The U.K. and EU are heading for a final battle over fishing rights as Brexit talks reach a climax, with officials cautiously predicting a trade deal within days.

  • India reassured Bangladesh it will prioritize the supply of Covid-19 shots to its South Asian neighbor, part of its outreach to counter China's influence in the region.
  • Hungary violates EU law by thwarting asylum seekers, the bloc's top court said in another ruling that targets Prime Minister Viktor Orban's anti-immigrant policy.

And finally ... The "gaokao" — China's notoriously grueling, days-long college entrance exam — has been held up by Beijing as a fair way to funnel the country's brightest students to its top universities. In reality, the test is increasingly seen less as a gateway to opportunity and more as a barrier. A record 10.7 million students took the exam this year, and of those, roughly 1% got into one of China's top 20 schools, according to Bloomberg calculations. Going by history, a disproportionate share will have come from the wealthiest cities.

Parents pray for high marks for their children at a temple in Shenyang.

Photographer: VCG via Getty Images

 

 

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